Wed, Nov 2, 2022·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 16 | 09 | 110 | 225 |
| TOR | 217 | 013 | 314 | 544 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:09PHIJoel FarabeeAssists: Travis Konecny, Travis Sanheim · Slap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 16:40TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: John Tavares, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–1
- P1 18:33TORJohn TavaresAssists: William Nylander, Morgan Rielly · Snap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 2:49TORZachary Aston-ReeseGWGAssists: Denis Malgin, David Kampf · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 7:01PHIOwen TippettPPAssists: Travis Konecny, Scott Laughton · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 12:42TORJohn TavaresAssists: Mitch Marner, Victor Mete · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–4
- P3 15:23TORJohn TavaresPPAssists: Auston Matthews, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–5
Penalties (20)
- P1 5:38PHINick Seeler: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:54PHITravis Konecny: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:48TORVictor Mete: Cross checking2 min
- P1 16:10PHINicolas Deslauriers: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 4:32TORDenis Malgin: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:36TORMark Giordano: Holding2 min
- P2 15:59TORWilliam Nylander: Interference2 min
- P2 18:27TORWilliam Nylander: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:34TORJohn Tavares: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 14:46PHIZack MacEwen: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:16TORAuston Matthews: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:16PHIKevin Hayes: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:16PHITravis Konecny: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:16PHITravis Konecny: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:16PHITravis Konecny: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:16PHITravis Konecny: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:16TORMark Giordano: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:16TORMark Giordano: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:16TORMichael Bunting: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:16PHITony DeAngelo: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Hayes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Sedlak – Allison – Cates2:05
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Hayes – Konecny – Farabee4:57
xG 0.18–0.22 (46%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Deslauriers – Sedlak – Allison3:04
xG 0.05–0.10 (32%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Bellows – Laczynski3:31
xG 0.03–0.09 (27%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – Zamula13:52
xG 0.41–0.35 (54%)attempts 14–19goals 0–0
- DeAngelo – Provorov11:25
xG 0.34–0.58 (37%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
- Ristolainen – Sanheim12:56
xG 0.05–1.31 (3%)attempts 5–23goals 0–2
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Kerfoot – Nylander7:48
xG 0.74–0.14 (84%)attempts 12–6goals 2–0
- Bunting – Marner – Matthews11:11
xG 0.85–0.34 (71%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Malgin – Aston-Reese – Kampf5:08
xG 0.36–0.01 (98%)attempts 12–2goals 1–0
- Jarnkrok – Engvall – Holmberg5:05
xG 0.06–0.01 (83%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Holl12:18
xG 1.06–0.24 (81%)attempts 23–5goals 2–1
- Giordano – Sandin12:59
xG 0.96–0.30 (76%)attempts 20–14goals 0–0
- Rielly – Mete11:02
xG 0.29–0.18 (61%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).