Thu, Nov 3, 2022·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Washington Capitals 1, Detroit Red Wings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 09 | 115 | 010 | 134 |
| DET | 09 | 19 | 28 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:11WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov · Snap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 14:58DETLucas RaymondPPAssists: Dominik Kubalik, David Perron · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P3 16:10DETAndrew CoppGWGAssists: Adam Erne, Dylan Larkin · Snap, 0.16 xG1–2
- P3 19:32DETDylan LarkinENAssists: Andrew Copp, Michael Rasmussen · Wrist, 0.76 xG1–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 13:04DETRobert Hagg: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:51WSHNic Dowd: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:35DETFilip Hronek: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:23WSHLars Eller: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 19:08WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:08WSHAlex Ovechkin: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:08DETLucas Raymond: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:20DETFilip Zadina: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:27DETMichael Rasmussen: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuznetsov won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Mantha – Strome9:59
xG 0.54–0.36 (60%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Dowd – Hathaway – Snively9:43
xG 0.33–0.29 (53%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Sheary8:49
xG 0.19–0.18 (52%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Eller – McMichael – Protas7:02
xG 0.25–0.54 (32%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – van Riemsdyk13:43
xG 0.95–0.60 (61%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
- Jensen – Fehérváry15:36
xG 0.54–0.56 (49%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Irwin – Gustafsson9:42
xG 0.16–0.35 (32%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestKubalik – Rasmussen – Zadina6:21
xG 0.30–0.11 (74%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Copp – Erne – Soderblom7:41
xG 0.15–0.04 (77%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Perron – Larkin – Raymond8:11
xG 0.29–0.34 (46%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Luff – Suter – Veleno5:28
xG 0.08–0.37 (18%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Hronek16:02
xG 0.66–0.30 (69%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Hagg – Lindstrom12:07
xG 0.49–0.50 (50%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Seider12:26
xG 0.44–0.84 (34%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).