Thu, Nov 3, 2022·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Nashville Predators 4, Calgary Flames 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 112 | 210 | 110 | 432 |
| CGY | 03 | 013 | 114 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:31NSHMark JankowskiAssists: Michael McCarron, Cole Smith · Snap, 0.21 xG1–0
- P2 0:59NSHFilip ForsbergGWGAssists: Matt Duchene, Jeremy Lauzon · Snap, 0.16 xG2–0
- P2 2:27NSHRoman JosiPPAssists: Ryan Johansen, Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–0
- P3 1:43CGYBlake ColemanAssists: Mikael Backlund · Snap, 0.21 xG3–1
- P3 19:46NSHMatt DucheneENAssists: Mikael Granlund, Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.77 xG4–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:44CGYConnor Mackey: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:35CGYAndrew Mangiapane: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 1:58CGYDillon Dube: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P2 4:35NSHColton Sissons: Interference2 min
- P2 16:13NSHJeremy Lauzon: Holding2 min
- P3 8:44NSHMikael Granlund: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:32CGYNikita Zadorov: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sissons won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJankowski – McCarron – Smith7:17
xG 0.70–0.24 (75%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- Duchene – Granlund – Forsberg10:06
xG 0.80–0.38 (68%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
- Sissons – Trenin – Jeannot10:18
xG 0.61–0.42 (60%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Johansen – Niederreiter – Sanford9:40
xG 0.20–0.24 (46%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Lauzon14:06
xG 0.99–0.61 (62%)attempts 13–18goals 2–0
- Josi – Gross7:57
xG 0.60–0.23 (72%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Ekholm – Carrier11:49
xG 0.68–0.42 (62%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Dube7:22
xG 0.31–0.21 (59%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Lucic – Toffoli – Lindholm10:57
xG 0.53–0.45 (54%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Lewis – Ritchie – Rooney8:02
xG 0.14–0.27 (34%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Kadri – Huberdeau – Mangiapane11:04
xG 0.04–1.05 (3%)attempts 5–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Zadorov14:27
xG 0.77–0.61 (56%)attempts 18–8goals 1–0
- Stone – Mackey9:40
xG 0.24–0.74 (24%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Hanifin – Andersson15:40
xG 0.43–1.02 (29%)attempts 15–21goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).