Thu, Nov 3, 2022·Rogers Place, Edmonton
New Jersey Devils 4, Edmonton Oilers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 115 | 011 | 317 | 443 |
| EDM | 110 | 214 | 013 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:20EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Zach Hyman, Darnell Nurse · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 12:22NJDMiles WoodAssists: Nathan Bastian, Michael McLeod · Snap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 8:00EDMDerek RyanAssists: Tyson Barrie, Dylan Holloway · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 9:26EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Tyson Barrie · Snap, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 1:14NJDMiles WoodAssists: Erik Haula · Snap, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 16:45NJDRyan GravesAssists: Tomas Tatar, Miles Wood · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–3
- P3 16:52NJDJesper BrattGWGAssists: John Marino, Nico Hischier · Snap, 0.10 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 0:36EDMBrett Kulak: Cross checking2 min
- P1 15:25EDMDerek Ryan: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:59NJDYegor Sharangovich: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:20NJDDamon Severson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:26EDMTyson Barrie: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Hischier – Zetterlund7:15
xG 0.79–0.46 (63%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Haula – Wood – Zetterlund3:02
xG 0.40–0.13 (76%)attempts 8–1goals 1–0
- Sharangovich – Hughes – Mercer4:54
xG 0.40–0.12 (76%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Tatar – Bratt – Hischier2:43
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Siegenthaler13:39
xG 1.05–0.73 (59%)attempts 24–13goals 0–0
- Smith – Severson4:37
xG 0.51–0.39 (57%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
- Severson – Marino4:07
xG 0.44–0.35 (55%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid12:58
xG 1.00–0.76 (57%)attempts 13–17goals 1–1
- Shore – Ryan – Holloway3:23
xG 0.31–0.13 (71%)attempts 4–3goals 1–1
- Foegele – Puljujarvi – McLeod5:41
xG 0.42–0.53 (44%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Kane – Draisaitl – Yamamoto12:27
xG 0.86–1.26 (41%)attempts 17–25goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Nurse15:43
xG 1.33–0.92 (59%)attempts 15–19goals 1–0
- Barrie – Niemelainen11:04
xG 0.93–1.13 (45%)attempts 16–22goals 1–2
- Kulak – Bouchard14:48
xG 1.10–1.33 (45%)attempts 16–23goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).