Fri, Nov 4, 2022·Nokia Arena, TampereNeutral site
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Colorado Avalanche 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 07 | 213 | 119 | 339 |
| COL | 216 | 19 | 311 | 636 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:36COLLogan O'ConnorAssists: Alex Newhook, Erik Johnson · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 12:27COLJ.T. CompherPPAssists: Devon Toews, Samuel Girard · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 0:35COLMikko RantanenAssists: Evan Rodrigues, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–3
- P2 1:35CBJJakub VoracekPPAssists: Patrik Laine, Zach Werenski · Deflected, 0.16 xG1–3
- P2 7:16CBJPatrik LaineAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Boone Jenner · Snap, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 2:32CBJSean KuralyAssists: Liam Foudy, Eric Robinson · Snap, 0.16 xG3–3
- P3 8:54COLMikko RantanenPPGWGAssists: Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon · Slap, 0.05 xG3–4
- P3 10:49COLCale MakarAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen · Snap, 0.05 xG3–5
- P3 18:56COLMikko RantanenENAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Devon Toews · Snap, 0.50 xG3–6
Penalties (11)
- P1 10:33CBJVladislav Gavrikov: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 13:41CBJGustav Nyquist: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:32COLMikko Rantanen: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:29COLSamuel Girard: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:43COLJacob MacDonald: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 11:39CBJJohnny Gaudreau: Holding2 min
- P2 13:13COLNathan MacKinnon: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:13COLNathan MacKinnon: Abuse of officials2 min
- P2 16:38CBJJohnny Gaudreau: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:54COLDryden Hunt: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 7:44CBJPatrik Laine: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jenner won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Jenner – Laine11:46
xG 0.83–0.74 (53%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- Kuraly – Robinson – Foudy7:16
xG 0.26–0.18 (58%)attempts 6–5goals 1–1
- Chinakhov – Johnson – Sillinger5:57
xG 0.01–0.07 (11%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
- Voracek – Nyquist – Roslovic8:31
xG 0.21–0.58 (26%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWerenski – Blankenburg14:26
xG 0.82–0.55 (60%)attempts 14–16goals 0–1
- Gudbranson – Bean5:56
xG 0.22–0.20 (52%)attempts 5–4goals 1–1
- Gavrikov – Peeke12:17
xG 0.29–0.75 (28%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestCompher – Lehkonen – Kaut3:13
xG 0.30–0.08 (80%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Cogliano – O'Connor – Newhook4:29
xG 0.38–0.20 (65%)attempts 5–7goals 1–1
- MacKinnon – Rantanen – Rodrigues6:31
xG 0.64–0.51 (55%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Cogliano – Compher – O'Connor2:21
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Byram7:45
xG 0.54–0.17 (76%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Toews – Makar12:25
xG 0.62–0.34 (64%)attempts 12–9goals 2–0
- Johnson – Girard7:08
xG 0.20–0.58 (26%)attempts 7–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).