Sat, Nov 5, 2022·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Dallas Stars 6, Edmonton Oilers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 111 | 318 | 27 | 636 |
| EDM | 011 | 18 | 111 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:15DALJoe PavelskiAssists: Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson · Snap, 0.28 xG1–0
- P2 6:46DALColin MillerAssists: Denis Gurianov, Tyler Seguin · Slap, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 10:16EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Connor McDavid · Slap, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 14:48DALJason RobertsonGWGAssists: Joe Pavelski, Jani Hakanpää · Snap, 0.06 xG3–1
- P2 15:27DALJamie BennPPAssists: Jason Robertson, Miro Heiskanen · Poke, 0.25 xG4–1
- P3 3:41EDMDarnell NurseAssists: Jesse Puljujarvi, Evander Kane · Snap, 0.11 xG4–2
- P3 4:01DALJamie BennPPAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Roope Hintz · Wrist, 0.20 xG5–2
- P3 12:33DALJamie BennAssists: Ty Dellandrea, Ryan Suter · Snap, 0.15 xG6–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:12EDMDerek Ryan: Interference2 min
- P1 13:13DALWyatt Johnston: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:59DALColin Miller: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:49DALRadek Faksa: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 12:30DALRoope Hintz: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:06EDMDerek Ryan: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 3:48EDMEvander Kane: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:03DALJoel Kiviranta: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Pavelski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson8:48
xG 0.76–0.43 (64%)attempts 8–6goals 2–0
- Seguin – Gurianov – Marchment8:14
xG 0.58–0.30 (66%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
- Benn – Dellandrea – Johnston7:16
xG 0.20–0.13 (61%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Glendening – Faksa – Kiviranta6:32
xG 0.05–0.12 (29%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Lundkvist11:24
xG 1.26–0.58 (68%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Miller – Heiskanen10:31
xG 0.78–0.50 (61%)attempts 10–8goals 3–0
- Hakanpää – Lindell12:24
xG 0.40–0.30 (57%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestKane – Draisaitl – Puljujarvi3:14
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Hyman – McDavid – Holloway3:15
xG 0.19–0.06 (77%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Shore – Yamamoto – McLeod3:01
xG 0.06–0.07 (44%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Hyman – McDavid – Yamamoto2:01
xG 0.03–0.17 (14%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Nurse2:20
xG 0.52–0.03 (95%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Nurse – Bouchard2:38
xG 0.32–0.06 (84%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
- Barrie – Niemelainen8:43
xG 0.31–0.35 (47%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).