Sat, Nov 5, 2022·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
New Jersey Devils 4, Calgary Flames 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 312 | 014 | 06 | 13 | 435 |
| CGY | 17 | 115 | 18 | 00 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:29CGYNazem KadriAssists: Trevor Lewis · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 4:27NJDNathan BastianAssists: Jack Hughes, Miles Wood · Snap, 0.19 xG1–1
- P1 7:50NJDFabian ZetterlundAssists: Tomas Tatar, Nico Hischier · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–1
- P1 16:38NJDMiles WoodAssists: Michael McLeod, Nathan Bastian · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–1
- P2 4:48CGYElias LindholmAssists: Noah Hanifin, Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–2
- P3 3:12CGYNikita ZadorovAssists: Blake Coleman, Rasmus Andersson · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–3
- OT 2:38NJDFabian ZetterlundPPGWGAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Jack Hughes · Snap, 0.15 xG4–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 9:13CGYMilan Lucic: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:28CGYConnor Mackey: Interference2 min
- P2 2:38CGYNoah Hanifin: Cross checking2 min
- P2 6:54NJDJonas Siegenthaler: Interference2 min
- P2 8:28NJDErik Haula: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:30NJDMiles Wood: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:30CGYBrett Ritchie: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:49CGYMilan Lucic: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:49NJDTomas Tatar: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:49CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Roughing2 min
- OT 1:14CGYElias Lindholm: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Bratt – Hughes9:46
xG 0.76–0.19 (80%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Boqvist – Sharangovich – Mercer7:56
xG 0.30–0.10 (75%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Tatar – Hischier – Zetterlund10:01
xG 0.34–0.17 (67%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
- Wood – Bastian – McLeod8:02
xG 0.39–0.56 (41%)attempts 6–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Siegenthaler12:14
xG 0.57–0.10 (85%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Severson – Siegenthaler5:31
xG 0.40–0.01 (98%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Graves – Marino17:18
xG 0.61–0.47 (57%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestLewis – Backlund – Coleman4:47
xG 0.10–0.04 (74%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Lewis – Coleman – Ritchie4:46
xG 0.11–0.19 (38%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Huberdeau – Lindholm9:54
xG 0.20–0.29 (41%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Lucic – Ritchie – Rooney4:53
xG 0.06–0.37 (14%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Zadorov – Andersson5:27
xG 0.17–0.20 (47%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Weegar – Mackey3:15
xG 0.01–0.11 (11%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Weegar – Zadorov15:08
xG 0.24–0.35 (40%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).