Sat, Nov 5, 2022·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Florida Panthers 4, Los Angeles Kings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 110 | 114 | 214 | 438 |
| LAK | 06 | 321 | 212 | 539 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:00FLARyan LombergAssists: Rudolfs Balcers · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 9:27LAKRasmus KupariAssists: Kevin Fiala, Carl Grundstrom · Snap, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 9:45FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Gustav Forsling, Aleksander Barkov · Deflected, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 10:19LAKTrevor MooreAssists: Viktor Arvidsson, Phillip Danault · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 19:34LAKViktor ArvidssonPPAssists: Anze Kopitar, Trevor Moore · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 1:18FLAEetu LuostarinenAssists: Sam Reinhart, Nick Cousins · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–3
- P3 2:40LAKBlake LizotteAssists: Matt Roy, Arthur Kaliyev · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–4
- P3 5:04FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–4
- P3 16:42LAKGabriel VilardiGWGAssists: Alexander Edler, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:11FLASam Bennett: Interference2 min
- P1 11:00LAKRasmus Kupari: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:28FLARadko Gudas: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:18FLARadko Gudas: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:11LAKRasmus Kupari: Holding2 min
- P2 17:39FLANick Cousins: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min · PPG
- P3 7:51FLAAnton Lundell: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:59FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 19:59FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestReinhart – Luostarinen – Lundell9:48
xG 0.77–0.24 (76%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Verhaeghe – Barkov – Tkachuk14:00
xG 1.09–0.69 (61%)attempts 31–9goals 2–0
- Cousins – Bennett – White8:54
xG 0.17–0.19 (47%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Staal – Balcers – Lomberg2:36
xG 0.05–0.94 (5%)attempts 1–7goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Mahura11:19
xG 0.78–0.44 (64%)attempts 18–11goals 2–2
- Gudas – Forsling2:30
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Staal – Gudas2:28
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestLemieux – Lizotte – Kaliyev4:23
xG 0.95–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–1goals 1–0
- Fiala – Grundstrom – Kupari7:03
xG 0.40–0.20 (67%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Danault – Arvidsson – Moore11:15
xG 0.43–0.43 (50%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Lemieux – Grundstrom – Lizotte2:41
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Anderson16:33
xG 1.54–0.97 (61%)attempts 19–20goals 1–1
- Edler – Walker12:56
xG 0.26–0.46 (36%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Roy – Durzi13:15
xG 0.55–1.04 (35%)attempts 8–21goals 2–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).