Sun, Nov 6, 2022·Madison Square Garden, New York
Detroit Red Wings 3, New York Rangers 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 014 | 210 | 08 | 14 | 336 |
| NYR | 211 | 06 | 012 | 00 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:14NYRKaapo KakkoAssists: Chris Kreider, Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 16:56NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Artemi Panarin, Adam Fox · Slap, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 2:56DETMatt LuffAssists: Ben Chiarot, Moritz Seider · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 8:37DETPius SuterAssists: Filip Hronek, Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- OT 2:43DETDominik KubalikPPGWGAssists: David Perron, Moritz Seider · Tip-in, 0.16 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:45DETFilip Hronek: Slashing2 min
- P1 5:04NYRJacob Trouba: Holding2 min
- P1 15:51DETBen Chiarot: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 17:30NYRFilip Chytil: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:18NYRAdam Fox: Interference2 min
- OT 1:44NYRK'Andre Miller: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Kubalik – Copp10:35
xG 0.41–0.24 (63%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Larkin – Suter – Raymond12:46
xG 0.56–0.41 (57%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Erne – Czarnik – Rasmussen9:48
xG 0.30–0.30 (50%)attempts 5–15goals 0–0
- Copp – Erne – Rasmussen2:01
xG 0.00–0.24 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Oesterle – Lindstrom12:19
xG 0.48–0.61 (44%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Seider17:15
xG 0.36–0.59 (38%)attempts 8–17goals 1–1
- Maatta – Hronek16:19
xG 0.14–0.48 (22%)attempts 12–18goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Carpenter – Gauthier2:49
xG 0.23–0.01 (96%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Vesey – Chytil4:58
xG 0.38–0.22 (63%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Zibanejad – Panarin – Kakko5:32
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Vesey – Blais4:01
xG 0.22–0.15 (60%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Hajek5:23
xG 0.24–0.03 (88%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Fox – Schneider2:05
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Fox – Miller19:42
xG 0.54–0.57 (49%)attempts 21–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).