Sun, Nov 6, 2022·Honda Center, Anaheim
Florida Panthers 5, Anaheim Ducks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 117 | 112 | 319 | 548 |
| ANA | 011 | 213 | 111 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:31FLACarter VerhaeghePPAssists: Brandon Montour, Anton Lundell · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 2:51FLABrandon MontourAssists: Aleksi Heponiemi, Anton Lundell · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–0
- P2 8:00ANAAdam HenriqueAssists: Ryan Strome, John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 8:27ANARyan StromeAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Troy Terry · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 2:55FLASam ReinhartAssists: Ryan Lomberg, Marc Staal · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–2
- P3 8:10FLASam BennettGWGAssists: Eetu Luostarinen, Brandon Montour · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–2
- P3 18:46ANAIsac LundeströmUnassisted · Backhand, 0.28 xG4–3
- P3 19:59FLASam ReinhartENAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, Brandon Montour · Wrist, 0.79 xG5–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 8:26ANANathan Beaulieu: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:46ANAAdam Henrique: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 5:23ANAMax Jones: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:36ANADmitry Kulikov: Cross checking2 min
- P3 7:12FLACarter Verhaeghe: Interference2 min
- P3 10:17FLAMarc Staal: Holding2 min
- P3 14:33FLABrandon Montour: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:33ANATrevor Zegras: Cross checking2 min
- P3 18:23ANACam Fowler: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 18:46FLAGustav Forsling: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lundeström won the faceoff against Lundell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestCousins – Bennett – Luostarinen8:31
xG 0.80–0.40 (66%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
- Reinhart – Lomberg – Lundell9:32
xG 0.65–0.34 (65%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Staal – Balcers – Heponiemi7:28
xG 0.39–0.11 (77%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Barkov – White11:27
xG 0.70–0.64 (52%)attempts 16–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Kiersted9:29
xG 0.99–0.36 (74%)attempts 19–11goals 1–1
- Gudas – Mahura11:18
xG 0.71–0.19 (78%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
- Montour – Forsling15:48
xG 0.90–0.66 (58%)attempts 26–14goals 1–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Strome – Terry – Comtois9:33
xG 0.36–0.35 (51%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
- Gawdin – Jones – Leason7:31
xG 0.08–0.40 (17%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
- Silfverberg – Lundeström – McTavish7:52
xG 0.15–0.65 (19%)attempts 5–15goals 0–1
- Henrique – Vatrano – Zegras9:26
xG 0.17–0.67 (20%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Fowler – Benoit13:54
xG 0.46–0.67 (40%)attempts 14–24goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Beaulieu9:36
xG 0.26–0.49 (35%)attempts 9–17goals 1–1
- Fowler – Klingberg3:27
xG 0.35–0.67 (34%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).