Mon, Nov 7, 2022·TD Garden, Boston
St. Louis Blues 1, Boston Bruins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 06 | 110 | 011 | 127 |
| BOS | 114 | 08 | 215 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:34BOSJake DeBruskPPAssists: David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 11:37STLBrayden SchennAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Torey Krug · Snap, 0.15 xG1–1
- P3 12:45BOSPatrice BergeronPPGWGAssists: Brad Marchand, David Krejci · Snap, 0.18 xG1–2
- P3 16:28BOSTrent FredericUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:30BOSMike Reilly: Interference2 min
- P1 5:36BOSMatt Grzelcyk: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:49BOSTomas Nosek: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:17STLNiko Mikkola: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 14:58STLTorey Krug: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:58BOSCharlie Coyle: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:32STLRyan O'Reilly: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- Walker – Acciari – Toropchenko6:23
xG 0.06–0.03 (66%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Saad – Barbashev10:25
xG 0.25–0.23 (51%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Schenn – Kyrou – Neighbours9:40
xG 0.29–0.29 (50%)attempts 6–11goals 1–1
- Tarasenko – Buchnevich – Thomas10:10
xG 0.48–0.69 (41%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Krug11:22
xG 0.80–0.59 (57%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
- Bortuzzo – Mikkola7:34
xG 0.24–0.24 (50%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
- Leddy – Faulk2:42
xG 0.11–0.16 (42%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Nosek – Frederic5:38
xG 0.50–0.07 (87%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – DeBrusk8:34
xG 0.56–0.23 (71%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Foligno – Coyle – Zacha5:56
xG 0.25–0.06 (82%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Krejci – Pastrnak – Zacha4:34
xG 0.14–0.23 (38%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – Carlo12:32
xG 0.79–0.30 (72%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Lindholm – Clifton14:47
xG 0.95–0.63 (60%)attempts 19–12goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Carlo2:54
xG 0.09–0.03 (76%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).