Mon, Nov 7, 2022·Capital One Arena, Washington
Edmonton Oilers 4, Washington Capitals 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 09 | 26 | 214 | 429 |
| WSH | 110 | 314 | 17 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:15WSHDylan StromeUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 0:26WSHDylan StromePPAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Erik Gustafsson · Deflected, 0.19 xG0–2
- P2 8:33EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
- P2 12:25WSHEvgeny KuznetsovPPAssists: Dylan Strome, Erik Gustafsson · Snap, 0.15 xG1–3
- P2 14:10EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Zach Hyman · Bat, 0.15 xG2–3
- P2 14:36WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–4
- P3 2:54EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Zach Hyman, Evander Kane · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–4
- P3 18:09WSHEvgeny KuznetsovPPGWGAssists: Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–5
- P3 18:54EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Darnell Nurse, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 18:32EDMRyan Murray: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:52WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:52EDMRyan McLeod: Interference2 min
- P2 11:55EDMZach Hyman: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:04EDMKailer Yamamoto: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:31EDMCody Ceci: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 10:23WSHErik Gustafsson: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:39EDMEvan Bouchard: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestNugent-Hopkins – McDavid – Puljujarvi8:48
xG 0.50–0.14 (78%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Foegele – Ryan – McLeod7:20
xG 0.16–0.13 (57%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Shore – Yamamoto – Holloway5:09
xG 0.05–0.20 (21%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Kane – Hyman – Draisaitl10:59
xG 0.49–0.69 (41%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Kulak3:21
xG 0.71–0.13 (84%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Nurse – Bouchard3:32
xG 0.23–0.18 (56%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Barrie – Murray10:37
xG 0.30–0.30 (50%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestEller – Mantha – Aube-Kubel8:54
xG 0.52–0.35 (60%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Johansson – Milano – Strome9:24
xG 0.54–0.41 (56%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Sheary11:51
xG 0.58–0.56 (51%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
- Dowd – Hathaway – Protas9:06
xG 0.15–0.51 (22%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Fehérváry17:10
xG 0.65–0.40 (62%)attempts 20–12goals 0–0
- Gustafsson – Fehérváry2:00
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Irwin – Johansen10:49
xG 0.20–0.32 (39%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).