Tue, Nov 8, 2022·Prudential Center, Newark
Calgary Flames 2, New Jersey Devils 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 114 | 09 | 112 | 235 |
| NJD | 05 | 210 | 15 | 320 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:58CGYNazem KadriPPAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 5:14NJDRyan GravesAssists: Nico Hischier, Tomas Tatar · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 16:37NJDDougie HamiltonPPAssists: Fabian Zetterlund, Jesper Bratt · Snap, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 5:13CGYTyler ToffoliPPAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Adam Ruzicka · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 11:50NJDNico HischierGWGAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Tomas Tatar · Snap, 0.04 xG2–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:59NJDNathan Bastian: Interference2 min
- P1 6:24CGYMikael Backlund: Cross checking2 min
- P1 11:23NJDErik Haula: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:42CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 17:53CGYDennis Gilbert: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:53NJDNathan Bastian: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:04CGYMilan Lucic: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 15:00CGYBrett Ritchie: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 15:58CGYBlake Coleman: Holding2 min
- P2 18:51NJDRyan Graves: Interference2 min
- P3 4:53NJDMiles Wood: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestLewis – Backlund – Mangiapane7:35
xG 0.66–0.11 (85%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Lindholm – Ruzicka9:22
xG 0.81–0.27 (75%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Kadri – Coleman – Dube7:52
xG 0.28–0.14 (66%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Lucic – Ritchie – Rooney5:52
xG 0.16–0.03 (85%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGilbert – DeSimone8:04
xG 0.48–0.10 (83%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Andersson10:59
xG 0.38–0.05 (89%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Weegar – Zadorov15:27
xG 1.06–0.73 (59%)attempts 18–9goals 0–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Bratt – Hughes3:03
xG 0.21–0.08 (74%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Bastian – McLeod – Boqvist4:48
xG 0.32–0.19 (62%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Tatar – Hischier – Zetterlund2:03
xG 0.05–0.03 (62%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Sharangovich – Hughes – Mercer6:40
xG 0.49–0.48 (50%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Siegenthaler12:30
xG 0.77–0.17 (82%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Smith – Severson9:44
xG 0.31–0.29 (52%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Graves – Marino14:25
xG 0.05–1.42 (4%)attempts 6–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).