Tue, Nov 8, 2022·Madison Square Garden, New York
New York Islanders 4, New York Rangers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 112 | 06 | 38 | 426 |
| NYR | 114 | 217 | 09 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:04NYIKyle PalmieriPPAssists: Zach Parise, Ryan Pulock · Snap, 0.27 xG1–0
- P1 11:36NYRFilip ChytilAssists: K'Andre Miller, Adam Fox · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 0:22NYRChris KreiderPPAssists: Artemi Panarin, Vincent Trocheck · Snap, 0.20 xG1–2
- P2 13:47NYRVincent TrocheckPPAssists: Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–3
- P3 0:14NYIAdam PelechAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Zach Parise · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 12:46NYIBrock NelsonPPAssists: Noah Dobson, Mathew Barzal · Slap, 0.07 xG3–3
- P3 14:30NYIAnders LeeGWGAssists: Alexander Romanov · Backhand, 0.11 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:14NYRJimmy Vesey: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:53NYICasey Cizikas: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 1:21NYIAnthony Beauvillier: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:52NYRBarclay Goodrow: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:53NYIOliver Wahlstrom: Interference2 min
- P2 11:52NYICasey Cizikas: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:42NYRFilip Chytil: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Barzal – Wahlstrom3:30
xG 0.24–0.19 (56%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Lee – Soshnikov – Barzal5:04
xG 0.09–0.05 (65%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Martin – Cizikas – Soshnikov2:02
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Bailey – Pageau – Beauvillier3:37
xG 0.09–0.10 (46%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPulock – Romanov2:05
xG 0.19–0.01 (93%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Aho6:24
xG 0.44–0.28 (61%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Romanov4:12
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Vesey – Lafrenière10:44
xG 1.08–0.14 (89%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Kreider – Chytil – Kravtsov7:07
xG 0.48–0.17 (74%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Goodrow – Carpenter – Blais7:35
xG 0.27–0.11 (71%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Zibanejad – Panarin – Kakko10:28
xG 0.47–0.54 (46%)attempts 12–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Hajek14:09
xG 1.33–0.19 (87%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
- Jones – Schneider12:23
xG 0.48–0.21 (70%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Trouba – Miller13:03
xG 0.30–0.57 (35%)attempts 13–12goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).