Tue, Nov 8, 2022·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Vancouver Canucks 6, Ottawa Senators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 18 | 18 | 412 | 628 |
| OTT | 216 | 019 | 26 | 441 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:50OTTDrake BathersonAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Jacob Bernard-Docker · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 19:07VANBo HorvatAssists: Ethan Bear, Jack Rathbone · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 19:23OTTTravis HamonicAssists: Tim Stützle · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 13:50VANIlya MikheyevAssists: Quinn Hughes, Elias Pettersson · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–2
- P3 1:16VANBo HorvatAssists: Conor Garland · Snap, 0.36 xG3–2
- P3 8:18VANOliver Ekman-LarssonAssists: Conor Garland, Brock Boeser · Snap, 0.03 xG4–2
- P3 14:03OTTTim StützlePPAssists: Alex DeBrincat · Wrist, 0.22 xG4–3
- P3 14:59VANJack StudnickaGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG5–3
- P3 17:09OTTClaude GirouxPPAssists: Jake Sanderson · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–4
- P3 19:15VANElias PetterssonENAssists: J.T. Miller, Tyler Myers · Wrist, 0.67 xG6–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:55VANVasily Podkolzin: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:35OTTBrady Tkachuk: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:36VANLuke Schenn: Interference2 min
- P2 14:21OTTAustin Watson: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:21VANLuke Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:17OTTNikita Zaitsev: Holding2 min
- P3 6:13OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:34VANJ.T. Miller: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 15:19VANVasily Podkolzin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 19:47VANIlya Mikheyev: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:00VANEthan Bear: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stützle won the faceoff against Miller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestHorvat – Garland – Podkolzin10:19
xG 0.80–0.64 (55%)attempts 11–12goals 2–0
- Pettersson – Mikheyev – Kuzmenko6:26
xG 0.65–0.79 (45%)attempts 7–8goals 1–1
- Miller – Pearson – Boeser10:53
xG 0.24–0.56 (30%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Joshua – Studnicka – Aman6:33
xG 0.02–0.50 (4%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Myers – Ekman-Larsson13:04
xG 1.04–1.12 (48%)attempts 13–16goals 3–2
- Schenn – Hughes13:15
xG 0.47–0.58 (45%)attempts 9–16goals 1–0
- Bear – Rathbone12:41
xG 0.28–0.97 (23%)attempts 8–17goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Tkachuk – Stützle11:33
xG 1.35–0.16 (89%)attempts 21–5goals 1–1
- Watson – Kastelic – Kelly4:42
xG 0.59–0.17 (78%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Brassard – DeBrincat – Batherson11:21
xG 0.97–0.60 (62%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
- Motte – Joseph – Pinto8:18
xG 0.14–0.37 (28%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Bernard-Docker15:20
xG 1.03–0.34 (75%)attempts 20–10goals 0–0
- Zaitsev – Brannstrom7:47
xG 0.75–0.24 (75%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Chabot – Brannstrom3:35
xG 0.20–0.10 (66%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).