Tue, Nov 8, 2022·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Montréal Canadiens 3, Detroit Red Wings 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 28 | 09 | 012 | 04 | 2 | 333 |
| DET | 116 | 014 | 110 | 03 | 1 | 243 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:41MTLMike HoffmanAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Jordan Harris · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 16:29DETAustin CzarnikAssists: Dominik Kubalik, Andrew Copp · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 19:44MTLMike HoffmanAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Christian Dvorak · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 10:37DETLucas RaymondAssists: Pius Suter, Filip Hronek · Slap, 0.12 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. MTL Cole Caufield scored
- 2. DET Lucas Raymond stopped
- 3. MTL Nick Suzuki scored
- 4. DET David Perron scored
- 5. MTL Jonathan Drouin stopped
- 6. DET Dylan Larkin stopped
Penalties (11)
- P1 7:11MTLArber Xhekaj: Interference2 min
- P1 11:23DETAndrew Copp: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:52MTLKirby Dach: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
- P2 8:07MTLJordan Harris: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:21MTLKaiden Guhle: Holding2 min
- P2 16:58MTLDavid Savard: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:00MTLDavid Savard: Misconduct10 min
- P3 14:28MTLJuraj Slafkovský: Boarding5 min
- P3 14:28MTLJuraj Slafkovský: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 16:26DETElmer Soderblom: Interference2 min
- OT 4:38MTLMike Hoffman: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Copp
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Gallagher – Dvorak7:59
xG 0.43–0.32 (58%)attempts 8–9goals 2–1
- Armia – Evans – Slafkovský7:40
xG 0.13–0.17 (43%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Suzuki – Dach – Caufield11:26
xG 0.12–0.33 (26%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Drouin – Monahan8:14
xG 0.25–0.65 (28%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Savard – Guhle11:13
xG 0.29–0.30 (49%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Kovacevic – Guhle2:53
xG 0.04–0.06 (42%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Kovacevic – Harris10:30
xG 0.29–0.33 (46%)attempts 8–14goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Kubalik – Copp9:02
xG 0.72–0.31 (70%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Larkin – Suter – Raymond9:53
xG 0.32–0.06 (83%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Luff – Veleno – Soderblom7:04
xG 0.10–0.14 (41%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Erne – Czarnik – Rasmussen5:59
xG 0.15–0.26 (36%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChiarot – Seider12:52
xG 0.75–0.06 (92%)attempts 16–3goals 1–0
- Oesterle – Lindstrom12:10
xG 0.40–0.21 (66%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Maatta – Hronek12:37
xG 0.20–0.73 (21%)attempts 8–18goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).