Tue, Nov 8, 2022·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Dallas Stars 1, Winnipeg Jets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 08 | 17 | 07 | 122 |
| WPG | 018 | 410 | 15 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:06DALJason RobertsonAssists: Roope Hintz · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 3:27WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Mason Appleton, Kyle Connor · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 4:37WPGPierre-Luc DuboisGWGAssists: Cole Perfetti, Blake Wheeler · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 6:12WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Kyle Connor, Mason Appleton · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–3
- P2 18:14WPGSaku MaenalanenAssists: Neal Pionk, Josh Morrissey · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–4
- P3 17:02WPGMason AppletonENAssists: Adam Lowry, Kyle Connor · Wrist, 0.79 xG1–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:30DALNils Lundkvist: Slashing2 min
- P1 5:30WPGJansen Harkins: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 16:57WPGBrenden Dillon: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:57DALTy Dellandrea: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:09WPGKyle Connor: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:04DALRyan Suter: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson11:27
xG 0.55–0.13 (81%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Benn – Faksa – Johnston4:45
xG 0.21–0.01 (94%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Glendening – Gurianov – Kiviranta2:19
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Seguin – Marchment – Dellandrea4:34
xG 0.24–0.25 (48%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Miller3:15
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Heiskanen – Lundkvist4:40
xG 0.17–0.03 (86%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Suter – Lundkvist11:37
xG 0.37–0.66 (36%)attempts 13–13goals 1–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Dubois – Perfetti10:44
xG 0.53–0.12 (82%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Gagner – Harkins – Gustafsson8:18
xG 0.36–0.23 (61%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Appleton12:11
xG 0.73–0.62 (54%)attempts 11–12goals 2–1
- Lowry – Maenalanen – Jonsson-Fjallby10:04
xG 0.11–0.27 (30%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Samberg14:50
xG 0.91–0.08 (92%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Morrissey – Pionk16:50
xG 0.56–0.62 (47%)attempts 15–18goals 1–1
- Dillon – Schmidt14:13
xG 0.53–0.71 (42%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).