Wed, Nov 9, 2022·FLA Live Arena, Sunrise
Carolina Hurricanes 0, Florida Panthers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 011 | 011 | 018 | 040 |
| FLA | 112 | 013 | 212 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:21FLANick CousinsGWGAssists: Brandon Montour, Sam Bennett · Snap, 0.20 xG0–1
- P3 10:20FLAAleksander BarkovPPAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, Brandon Montour · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–2
- P3 19:54FLASam BennettENAssists: Anton Lundell, Brandon Montour · Wrist, 0.72 xG0–3
Penalties (7)
- P2 0:33CARJordan Martinook: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:40CARMartin Necas: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:25CARDerek Stepan: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:35FLABrandon Montour: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:07FLASam Bennett: Interference2 min
- P3 8:49CARJack Drury: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 13:42FLACarter Verhaeghe: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestAho – Svechnikov – Jarvis3:04
xG 0.54–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Aho – Jarvis5:21
xG 0.47–0.16 (75%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Stepan – Noesen – Drury5:50
xG 0.32–0.01 (97%)attempts 13–1goals 0–0
- Aho – Necas – Svechnikov3:10
xG 0.20–0.00 (98%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Pesce13:54
xG 0.75–0.41 (65%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
- Burns – Slavin14:05
xG 0.93–0.58 (61%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Chatfield – Coghlan10:54
xG 0.57–0.70 (45%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestCousins – Bennett – Luostarinen8:51
xG 0.69–0.45 (61%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Reinhart – Lomberg – Lundell6:12
xG 0.37–0.27 (58%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Staal – Balcers – Heponiemi7:30
xG 0.09–0.40 (19%)attempts 3–14goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Barkov – White11:33
xG 0.13–1.07 (11%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMontour – Forsling16:08
xG 0.89–0.65 (58%)attempts 14–15goals 1–0
- Gudas – Mahura13:09
xG 0.47–0.72 (40%)attempts 10–22goals 0–0
- Staal – Kiersted7:18
xG 0.28–0.86 (24%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).