Wed, Nov 9, 2022·Capital One Arena, Washington
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Washington Capitals 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 010 | 310 | 18 | 428 |
| WSH | 07 | 011 | 17 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:43PITJason ZuckerAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Rickard Rakell · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 12:53PITBrock McGinnSHGWGAssists: Jeff Carter · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–0
- P2 15:05PITJeff PetryAssists: Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel · Slap, 0.02 xG3–0
- P3 12:22WSHMarcus JohanssonAssists: Sonny Milano, Nick Jensen · Snap, 0.26 xG3–1
- P3 18:24PITJake GuentzelENAssists: Kris Letang, Marcus Pettersson · Wrist, 0.70 xG4–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 18:52WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:03PITSidney Crosby: Interference2 min
- P2 9:52WSHGarnet Hathaway: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:30PITJan Rutta: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:46PITJeff Carter: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:31PITBryan Rust: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:31WSHTrevor van Riemsdyk: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:48WSHConor Sheary: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 19:39PITJosh Archibald: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Zucker – Rakell9:25
xG 0.65–0.10 (87%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Carter – McGinn – Heinen7:23
xG 0.69–0.57 (55%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Archibald – Poehling – Hallander6:57
xG 0.00–0.23 (0%)attempts 0–11goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel12:23
xG 0.23–0.75 (24%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Joseph6:35
xG 0.48–0.08 (85%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Dumoulin – Rutta6:51
xG 0.72–0.47 (61%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Letang – Petry2:46
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestEller – Mantha – Aube-Kubel5:42
xG 0.43–0.06 (88%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Sheary9:46
xG 0.48–0.29 (62%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Johansson – Milano – Strome7:25
xG 0.50–0.37 (57%)attempts 7–8goals 1–1
- Dowd – Hathaway – Protas6:00
xG 0.17–0.36 (32%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Fehérváry13:42
xG 0.98–0.62 (61%)attempts 21–12goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Fehérváry3:07
xG 0.25–0.11 (69%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Gustafsson – Fehérváry2:34
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).