Wed, Nov 9, 2022·Centre Bell, Montreal
Vancouver Canucks 2, Montréal Canadiens 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 07 | 011 | 215 | 233 |
| MTL | 312 | 112 | 15 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:55MTLNick SuzukiPPAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Cole Caufield · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 8:47MTLArber XhekajAssists: Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–2
- P1 12:23MTLKirby DachGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–3
- P2 13:01MTLMike HoffmanAssists: Johnathan Kovacevic, Christian Dvorak · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–4
- P3 4:45VANLuke SchennAssists: Brock Boeser · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–4
- P3 8:57VANNils HoglanderAssists: Elias Pettersson, Quinn Hughes · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–4
- P3 15:02MTLKirby DachAssists: Nick Suzuki · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:43VANTanner Pearson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:41VANTanner Pearson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 6:56VANTyler Myers: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:19VANOliver Ekman-Larsson: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:19MTLBrendan Gallagher: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:19VANThatcher Demko: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:09MTLArber Xhekaj: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:38MTLKaiden Guhle: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Miller won the faceoff against Dvorak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestPettersson – Hoglander – Mikheyev2:43
xG 0.53–0.01 (98%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Miller – Pearson – Boeser4:19
xG 0.42–0.16 (72%)attempts 7–2goals 0–2
- Pettersson – Mikheyev – Kuzmenko6:49
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Miller – Boeser – Kuzmenko2:58
xG 0.11–0.12 (48%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Rathbone2:25
xG 0.47–0.13 (79%)attempts 8–1goals 0–1
- Myers – Ekman-Larsson12:50
xG 0.40–0.19 (68%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Schenn – Hughes13:46
xG 0.48–0.38 (56%)attempts 14–10goals 2–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Dach – Caufield11:24
xG 0.53–0.17 (76%)attempts 10–9goals 2–0
- Dadonov – Drouin – Monahan8:02
xG 0.19–0.29 (40%)attempts 6–5goals 1–1
- Armia – Evans – Pezzetta7:24
xG 0.10–0.38 (21%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Gallagher – Dvorak10:32
xG 0.39–0.68 (36%)attempts 4–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Edmundson – Xhekaj15:08
xG 0.45–0.65 (41%)attempts 9–14goals 1–1
- Savard – Guhle14:31
xG 0.44–0.67 (39%)attempts 6–16goals 1–1
- Kovacevic – Harris15:01
xG 0.44–0.89 (33%)attempts 11–18goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).