Wed, Nov 9, 2022·Honda Center, Anaheim
Minnesota Wild 4, Anaheim Ducks 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 015 | 18 | 316 | 439 |
| ANA | 012 | 113 | 07 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 13:24ANAPavol RegendaAssists: Frank Vatrano, Dmitry Kulikov · Snap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 16:37MINKirill KaprizovPPAssists: Matt Boldy, Calen Addison · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 1:41MINMathew DumbaGWGAssists: Connor Dewar, Mason Shaw · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–1
- P3 3:23MINKirill KaprizovPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Joel Eriksson Ek · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–1
- P3 11:42MINJoseph CramarossaAssists: Tyson Jost · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–1
Penalties (28)
- P1 6:19MINTyson Jost: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:22ANANathan Beaulieu: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:20ANADmitry Kulikov: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:12ANANathan Beaulieu: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:12MINConnor Dewar: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:58MINMathew Dumba: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:07MINMatt Boldy: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:07ANAMax Jones: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:07MINMatt Boldy: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:24ANAMax Jones: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 2:22ANAJohn Klingberg: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 3:01ANASimon Benoit: Holding2 min
- P3 4:56ANAJohn Klingberg: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 14:20ANARyan Strome: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:20MINMathew Dumba: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:59MINMason Shaw: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:59ANAMaxime Comtois: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:59ANATrevor Zegras: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:59MINJake Middleton: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:59MINConnor Dewar: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:59ANATrevor Zegras: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:59ANASimon Benoit: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:59MINMason Shaw: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:59MINConnor Dewar: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:59ANAMaxime Comtois: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:59ANASimon Benoit: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:59MINJake Middleton: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:59MINJake Middleton: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaudreau won the faceoff against Lundeström
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestShaw – Dewar – Rossi6:19
xG 0.68–0.28 (71%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Eriksson Ek – Beckman – Boldy7:22
xG 0.50–0.11 (82%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Gaudreau – Kaprizov8:46
xG 0.48–0.20 (71%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Kaprizov – Boldy2:04
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba15:00
xG 0.82–0.31 (72%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Spurgeon – Middleton9:23
xG 0.68–0.33 (67%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Merrill – Addison10:13
xG 0.72–0.74 (49%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGawdin – Leason – Regenda2:35
xG 0.16–0.10 (60%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Silfverberg – Jones – Lundeström4:58
xG 0.15–0.17 (47%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Strome – Vatrano – McTavish6:02
xG 0.30–0.40 (43%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Strome – Vatrano – Regenda3:28
xG 0.15–0.29 (34%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Fowler6:07
xG 0.62–0.18 (77%)attempts 10–4goals 1–1
- Klingberg – Benoit6:23
xG 0.20–0.11 (66%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Beaulieu3:45
xG 0.26–0.23 (53%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).