Thu, Nov 10, 2022·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Edmonton Oilers 2, Carolina Hurricanes 7
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 08 | 18 | 16 | 222 |
| CAR | 114 | 36 | 312 | 732 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:40CARAndrei SvechnikovAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 5:58CARBrent BurnsPPAssists: Martin Necas, Teuvo Teravainen · Snap, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 7:25EDMZach HymanPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid · Deflected, 0.22 xG1–2
- P2 10:24CARAndrei SvechnikovGWGAssists: Martin Necas · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 19:59CARJordan StaalAssists: Jordan Martinook, Jaccob Slavin · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–4
- P3 7:26EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Tyson Barrie, Brett Kulak · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–4
- P3 14:27CARJordan MartinookAssists: Brady Skjei, Jesper Fast · Bat, 0.16 xG2–5
- P3 15:49CARAndrei SvechnikovAssists: Sebastian Aho, Calvin de Haan · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–6
- P3 17:42CARJesper FastUnassisted · Slap, 0.14 xG2–7
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:05EDMMattias Janmark: Cross checking2 min
- P1 9:19CARBrady Skjei: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 0:49CARBrent Burns: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:53EDMMarkus Niemelainen: Cross checking2 min
- P2 5:14EDMDerek Ryan: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 6:53CARJesperi Kotkaniemi: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 17:23EDMLeon Draisaitl: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Aho
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Draisaitl – Holloway7:15
xG 0.64–0.30 (68%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – Holloway3:12
xG 0.13–0.14 (50%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
- Hyman – Draisaitl – McDavid2:09
xG 0.06–0.15 (29%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
- Foegele – Ryan – McLeod5:06
xG 0.34–0.44 (44%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Ceci – Nurse2:27
xG 0.14–0.16 (45%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Ceci – Kulak9:38
xG 0.41–0.44 (48%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
- Murray – Bouchard7:54
xG 0.27–0.40 (40%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Fast – Martinook9:24
xG 0.96–0.60 (61%)attempts 19–8goals 2–0
- Stastny – Noesen – Drury4:20
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Necas – Kotkaniemi – Jarvis3:52
xG 0.35–0.12 (75%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Aho – Necas – Svechnikov6:46
xG 0.47–0.31 (60%)attempts 6–8goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Chatfield15:05
xG 1.04–0.29 (78%)attempts 20–11goals 2–1
- Skjei – Pesce15:56
xG 1.09–0.47 (70%)attempts 20–8goals 3–0
- Burns – Slavin14:14
xG 0.83–0.72 (53%)attempts 19–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).