Thu, Nov 10, 2022·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Vegas Golden Knights 7, Buffalo Sabres 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 115 | 26 | 415 | 736 |
| BUF | 110 | 113 | 212 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:44VGKChandler StephensonPPAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Alex Pietrangelo · Slap, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 16:23BUFTage ThompsonPPAssists: Kyle Okposo, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 3:43VGKPhil KesselAssists: Nicolas Roy, Paul Cotter · Snap, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 14:09BUFCasey MittelstadtPPAssists: Dylan Cozens, JJ Peterka · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–2
- P2 17:08VGKPaul CotterAssists: Nicolas Roy, Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–2
- P3 3:52VGKAlex PietrangeloAssists: Jack Eichel, Chandler Stephenson · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–2
- P3 6:13VGKJack EichelGWGAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Chandler Stephenson · Wrist, 0.13 xG5–2
- P3 9:40BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Jeff Skinner, Vinnie Hinostroza · Wrist, 0.16 xG5–3
- P3 14:37VGKJack EichelAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.15 xG6–3
- P3 16:31BUFRasmus AsplundSHAssists: Dylan Cozens, Jacob Bryson · Snap, 0.26 xG6–4
- P3 19:52VGKJack EichelENAssists: Alec Martinez · Wrist, 0.34 xG7–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:32BUFPeyton Krebs: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:46VGKMark Stone: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 12:29VGKMark Stone: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 16:11BUFRasmus Dahlin: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:23VGKReilly Smith: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Krebs won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStone – Stephenson – Eichel11:13
xG 0.98–0.43 (70%)attempts 14–12goals 3–0
- Carrier – Kolesar – Roy10:26
xG 0.35–0.02 (95%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Kessel – Howden – Cotter10:15
xG 0.35–0.65 (35%)attempts 6–23goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault11:14
xG 0.46–0.84 (35%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Pietrangelo17:28
xG 1.02–0.50 (67%)attempts 15–15goals 3–0
- Theodore – Hague2:18
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- McNabb – Theodore14:54
xG 0.61–0.78 (44%)attempts 15–17goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Hinostroza – Thompson11:53
xG 0.99–0.46 (68%)attempts 18–7goals 1–1
- Olofsson – Asplund – Mittelstadt8:53
xG 0.48–0.30 (62%)attempts 15–6goals 0–1
- Okposo – Girgensons – Krebs10:14
xG 0.13–0.06 (70%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Tuch – Olofsson – Mittelstadt2:19
xG 0.12–0.13 (48%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBryson – Dahlin12:08
xG 0.66–0.60 (52%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
- Dahlin – Power5:54
xG 0.24–0.23 (51%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Clague – Fitzgerald8:47
xG 0.42–0.42 (50%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).