Thu, Nov 10, 2022·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
San Jose Sharks 3, St. Louis Blues 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 111 | 110 | 19 | 330 |
| STL | 19 | 218 | 26 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:30STLTorey KrugAssists: Brayden Schenn, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 16:19SJSTimo MeierAssists: Kevin Labanc, Erik Karlsson · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 6:59STLJordan KyrouPPAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 13:05SJSTomas HertlAssists: Kevin Labanc, Mario Ferraro · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–2
- P2 18:08STLBrandon SaadAssists: Josh Leivo, Calle Rosen · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 1:26SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Erik Karlsson · Tip-in, 0.17 xG3–3
- P3 8:20STLCalle RosenGWGAssists: Robert Thomas, Vladimir Tarasenko · Slap, 0.03 xG3–4
- P3 19:41STLNoel AcciariENAssists: Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.78 xG3–5
Penalties (2)
- P1 7:02SJSMario Ferraro: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:34SJSJaycob Megna: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Hertl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHertl – Labanc – Meier12:53
xG 1.26–0.15 (90%)attempts 23–4goals 2–0
- Bonino – Gregor – Gadjovich8:44
xG 0.30–0.40 (43%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Couture – Nieto – Barabanov10:41
xG 0.80–0.91 (47%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Lindblom – Kunin – Sturm11:41
xG 0.27–0.65 (29%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Megna19:20
xG 0.94–0.71 (57%)attempts 21–14goals 2–0
- Benning – Ferraro7:40
xG 0.38–0.19 (67%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Ferraro3:44
xG 0.10–0.06 (61%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestTarasenko – Buchnevich – Thomas13:34
xG 0.93–0.82 (53%)attempts 16–13goals 1–2
- Schenn – Barbashev – Kyrou12:26
xG 0.49–0.39 (56%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Acciari – Alexandrov8:03
xG 0.36–0.29 (55%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Leivo – Saad10:44
xG 0.25–1.03 (19%)attempts 4–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Krug17:24
xG 1.52–0.79 (66%)attempts 24–13goals 1–1
- Mikkola – Rosen11:54
xG 0.22–0.14 (62%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Leddy – Parayko20:03
xG 0.71–1.79 (28%)attempts 15–32goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).