Thu, Nov 10, 2022·Ball Arena, Denver
Nashville Predators 3, Colorado Avalanche 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 114 | 112 | 19 | 335 |
| COL | 121 | 411 | 03 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:45NSHEeli TolvanenAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Cody Glass · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 7:37COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Artturi Lehkonen · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 6:34COLLogan O'ConnorAssists: Devon Toews, J.T. Compher · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 7:59COLLogan O'ConnorAssists: J.T. Compher · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–3
- P2 10:48COLMikko RantanenGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Kurtis MacDermid · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–4
- P2 15:12COLEvan RodriguesPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Cale Makar · Snap, 0.11 xG1–5
- P2 19:32NSHRyan JohansenPPAssists: Mikael Granlund, Filip Forsberg · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–5
- P3 2:59NSHRoman JosiAssists: Dante Fabbro, Yakov Trenin · Slap, 0.02 xG3–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:29NSHRyan McDonagh: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:53NSHFilip Forsberg: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:40COLMikko Rantanen: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:32NSHJeremy Lauzon: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:05COLArtturi Lehkonen: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Granlund won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJankowski – Trenin – Jeannot9:25
xG 0.76–0.26 (75%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Johansen – Niederreiter – Sissons12:02
xG 0.53–0.32 (62%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Glass – Tolvanen – Smith5:58
xG 0.10–0.15 (40%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Duchene – Granlund – Forsberg13:40
xG 0.21–0.82 (20%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Carrier14:45
xG 0.80–0.32 (71%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Josi – Fabbro15:14
xG 0.36–0.57 (39%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- McDonagh – Lauzon12:57
xG 0.38–0.80 (32%)attempts 11–15goals 1–2
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestCogliano – Compher – O'Connor11:31
xG 0.37–0.08 (82%)attempts 8–11goals 2–0
- Rodrigues – Kaut – Newhook4:52
xG 0.20–0.01 (95%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Rantanen11:40
xG 0.58–0.63 (48%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar17:15
xG 0.90–0.50 (64%)attempts 17–22goals 1–0
- Manson – MacDonald10:24
xG 0.52–0.34 (61%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Johnson – Toews3:03
xG 0.06–0.16 (28%)attempts 1–5goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).