Fri, Nov 11, 2022·American Airlines Center, Dallas
San Jose Sharks 5, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 211 | 24 | 13 | 518 |
| DAL | 27 | 011 | 211 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:42DALJamie BennUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 6:13SJSAlexander BarabanovPPAssists: Tomas Hertl, Logan Couture · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 12:18SJSEvgeny SvechnikovAssists: Oskar Lindblom, Steven Lorentz · Snap, 0.19 xG2–1
- P1 19:39DALJamie BennAssists: Ty Dellandrea · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 0:29SJSTimo MeierAssists: Kevin Labanc · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P2 1:05SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Alexander Barabanov · Snap, 0.15 xG4–2
- P3 0:29SJSTomas HertlGWGAssists: Timo Meier, Jaycob Megna · Backhand, 0.13 xG5–2
- P3 6:18DALRoope HintzAssists: Jason Robertson, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–3
- P3 12:06DALJoe PavelskiAssists: Jason Robertson, Miro Heiskanen · Snap, 0.11 xG5–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:03DALRoope Hintz: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:20DALTy Dellandrea: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:00SJSLuke Kunin: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:00DALMiro Heiskanen: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:09SJSLogan Couture: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:09DALJamie Benn: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:20SJSMatt Benning: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against Hertl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHertl – Labanc – Meier12:04
xG 0.47–0.26 (64%)attempts 8–8goals 2–0
- Couture – Svechnikov – Barabanov3:12
xG 0.15–0.15 (50%)attempts 1–4goals 1–0
- Lindblom – Svechnikov – Lorentz5:35
xG 0.23–0.25 (48%)attempts 2–7goals 1–0
- Couture – Nieto – Barabanov5:25
xG 0.01–0.17 (6%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Ferraro3:21
xG 0.40–0.31 (56%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
- Vlasic – Benning11:51
xG 0.39–0.34 (53%)attempts 5–14goals 2–1
- Karlsson – Megna11:24
xG 0.37–0.39 (49%)attempts 7–12goals 2–2
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson10:06
xG 0.57–0.15 (80%)attempts 11–4goals 2–1
- Benn – Dellandrea – Johnston8:58
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 16–0goals 1–0
- Seguin – Marchment – Blümel10:32
xG 0.46–0.53 (47%)attempts 12–9goals 0–2
- Glendening – Faksa – Kiviranta6:29
xG 0.12–0.35 (25%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Heiskanen16:14
xG 0.60–0.15 (80%)attempts 19–3goals 1–1
- Lindell – Heiskanen2:30
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Hakanpää – Lindell9:05
xG 0.20–0.27 (44%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).