Sat, Nov 12, 2022·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Vancouver Canucks 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 29 | 010 | 010 | 229 |
| TOR | 010 | 317 | 07 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:41VANBo HorvatAssists: Luke Schenn, Vasily Podkolzin · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 12:11VANJ.T. MillerPPAssists: Quinn Hughes, Brock Boeser · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 1:46TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: Mitch Marner, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 6:27TORPierre EngvallAssists: Calle Jarnkrok, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- P2 10:01TORJordie BennGWGAssists: Morgan Rielly, William Nylander · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 11:48TORMichael Bunting: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 17:47VANNils Aman: Holding2 min
- P2 0:30VANQuinn Hughes: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:42TORJordie Benn: Interference2 min
- P3 1:11TORTimothy Liljegren: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 14:26TORZachary Aston-Reese: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Engvall won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestPettersson – Hoglander – Kuzmenko6:36
xG 0.18–0.07 (72%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Horvat – Garland – Podkolzin10:35
xG 0.63–0.52 (55%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Joshua – Pettersson – Studnicka2:19
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Joshua – Studnicka – Aman6:20
xG 0.14–0.11 (55%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Myers – Ekman-Larsson17:25
xG 0.53–0.79 (40%)attempts 10–19goals 0–0
- Bear – Stillman12:06
xG 0.38–0.84 (31%)attempts 10–17goals 0–1
- Schenn – Hughes14:38
xG 0.50–1.14 (31%)attempts 15–20goals 1–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Kerfoot – Marner10:16
xG 0.43–0.20 (68%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Malgin – Aston-Reese – Kampf7:56
xG 0.18–0.04 (82%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Nylander – Bunting – Matthews10:48
xG 0.46–0.43 (52%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Engvall – Robertson5:31
xG 0.10–0.19 (34%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Rielly10:14
xG 1.03–0.31 (77%)attempts 23–6goals 1–0
- Benn – Sandin5:14
xG 0.27–0.04 (88%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Giordano – Holl12:38
xG 0.24–0.28 (46%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).