Sat, Nov 12, 2022·Ball Arena, Denver
Carolina Hurricanes 1, Colorado Avalanche 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 09 | 16 | 010 | 125 |
| COL | 211 | 010 | 27 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:29COLCale MakarPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 17:51COLCale MakarGWGAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Artturi Lehkonen · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 13:55CARJordan StaalAssists: Jordan Martinook, Jesper Fast · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 4:17COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Devon Toews · Snap, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 17:50COLMikko RantanenENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.39 xG1–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:51CARSebastian Aho: Slashing2 min
- P1 5:43COLCale Makar: Interference2 min
- P1 10:19COLJosh Manson: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:05CARAndrei Svechnikov: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 18:20CARJack Drury: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:50COLSampo Ranta: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 6:42COLJosh Manson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 9:05CARJordan Martinook: Charging2 min
- P3 14:36COLAlex Newhook: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Compher won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestAho – Necas – Svechnikov6:07
xG 0.41–0.13 (76%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Staal – Fast – Martinook9:20
xG 0.39–0.20 (67%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Stastny – Stepan – Drury3:26
xG 0.07–0.04 (65%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Noesen – Aho – Svechnikov4:27
xG 0.22–0.19 (54%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Pesce11:18
xG 0.57–0.19 (75%)attempts 14–2goals 0–1
- Burns – Slavin14:34
xG 0.67–0.30 (69%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- de Haan – Chatfield8:27
xG 0.02–0.57 (4%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMegna – Hunt – Ranta4:07
xG 0.40–0.16 (71%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Compher – O'Connor8:56
xG 0.08–0.08 (50%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Rantanen10:57
xG 0.46–0.48 (49%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
- Rodrigues – Kaut – Newhook7:10
xG 0.04–0.66 (6%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Makar2:09
xG 0.13–0.03 (83%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Johnson – Toews4:36
xG 0.22–0.12 (65%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Johnson – Manson6:29
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).