Sat, Nov 12, 2022·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Winnipeg Jets 2, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 19 | 110 | 04 | 223 |
| CGY | 210 | 114 | 011 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:23CGYElias LindholmAssists: Adam Ruzicka, Rasmus Andersson · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 14:46WPGNeal PionkAssists: Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 17:22CGYAdam RuzickaAssists: Elias Lindholm, Rasmus Andersson · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 4:23WPGPierre-Luc DuboisAssists: Josh Morrissey, Neal Pionk · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 18:31CGYTrevor LewisSHGWGAssists: Mikael Backlund, Noah Hanifin · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 18:33WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Holding2 min
- P1 18:33CGYBlake Coleman: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:35WPGAdam Lowry: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:35CGYMilan Lucic: Cross checking2 min
- P2 6:00WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:25CGYBlake Coleman: Holding2 min
- P2 12:22WPGMason Appleton: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:21CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Holding2 min
- P2 19:02CGYJacob Markstrom: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:40WPGCole Perfetti: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestMaenalanen – Jonsson-Fjallby – Gustafsson3:30
xG 0.20–0.05 (79%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Gagner – Harkins – Gustafsson3:15
xG 0.04–0.08 (32%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Dubois – Perfetti3:12
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Lowry – Maenalanen – Jonsson-Fjallby3:37
xG 0.03–0.15 (16%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMorrissey – Pionk15:04
xG 0.94–0.43 (68%)attempts 15–12goals 1–1
- DeMelo – Samberg8:52
xG 0.10–0.20 (32%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Dillon – DeMelo2:32
xG 0.09–0.22 (29%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Lindholm – Ruzicka7:25
xG 0.62–0.14 (82%)attempts 12–2goals 2–0
- Kadri – Coleman – Dube5:50
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Lucic – Backlund – Mangiapane4:34
xG 0.20–0.07 (75%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Lewis – Backlund – Mangiapane6:11
xG 0.26–0.22 (54%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Andersson14:07
xG 0.91–0.31 (74%)attempts 16–9goals 2–0
- Tanev – Zadorov3:34
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Weegar – Zadorov11:29
xG 0.32–0.62 (34%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).