Sat, Nov 12, 2022·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Detroit Red Wings 3, Los Angeles Kings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 14 | 06 | 211 | 321 |
| LAK | 29 | 28 | 04 | 421 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:09LAKCarl GrundstromAssists: Rasmus Kupari, Alexander Edler · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 4:09DETDominik KubalikPPAssists: Filip Hronek, David Perron · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 13:21LAKKevin FialaPPAssists: Drew Doughty, Adrian Kempe · Backhand, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 6:23LAKSean DurziAssists: Phillip Danault, Arthur Kaliyev · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 13:41LAKSean DurziPPGWGAssists: Arthur Kaliyev, Phillip Danault · Slap, 0.04 xG1–4
- P3 1:57DETDylan LarkinPPAssists: Oskar Sundqvist, Lucas Raymond · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–4
- P3 17:59DETFilip HronekAssists: Dominik Kubalik, David Perron · Slap, 0.03 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:05LAKAlexander Edler: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 12:26DETBen Chiarot: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 18:55LAKAdrian Kempe: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:20DETBen Chiarot: Boarding2 min
- P2 13:26DETDylan Larkin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 17:01LAKViktor Arvidsson: Holding2 min
- P3 0:42LAKPhillip Danault: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kupari won the faceoff against Rasmussen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCzarnik – Veleno – Berggren5:58
xG 0.35–0.10 (77%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Perron – Kubalik – Veleno2:17
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Larkin – Suter – Raymond6:07
xG 0.04–0.07 (36%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Larkin – Berggren – Raymond4:15
xG 0.10–0.23 (30%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChiarot – Seider15:44
xG 0.48–0.40 (54%)attempts 21–17goals 0–0
- Maatta – Hronek13:44
xG 0.02–0.16 (10%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Hagg – Oesterle10:44
xG 0.24–0.55 (31%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestDanault – Arvidsson – Moore9:48
xG 0.33–0.05 (86%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Fiala – Grundstrom – Kupari6:39
xG 0.25–0.11 (70%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Kopitar – Kempe – Vilardi11:56
xG 0.27–0.22 (55%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
- Fiala – Lizotte – Kaliyev2:12
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRoy – Durzi12:12
xG 0.52–0.18 (74%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Edler – Walker14:18
xG 0.51–0.37 (58%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Doughty – Anderson17:00
xG 0.11–0.35 (24%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).