Sun, Nov 13, 2022·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Dallas Stars 5, Philadelphia Flyers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 212 | 19 | 210 | 531 |
| PHI | 012 | 112 | 014 | 138 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:36DALMatěj BlümelAssists: Tyler Seguin, Esa Lindell · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 18:24DALEsa LindellGWGAssists: Jason Robertson, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–0
- P2 0:54PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Kevin Hayes, Owen Tippett · Snap, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 9:06DALJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Jamie Benn · Tip-in, 0.26 xG3–1
- P3 0:57DALLuke GlendeningSHAssists: Ty Dellandrea, Esa Lindell · Tip-in, 0.15 xG4–1
- P3 10:59DALJason RobertsonPPAssists: Joe Pavelski, Roope Hintz · Wrist, 0.26 xG5–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 12:41PHITravis Konecny: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:01DALTyler Seguin: Interference2 min
- P2 7:36PHIKieffer Bellows: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 12:59DALJoel Kiviranta: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:47DALRyan Suter: Holding2 min
- P3 5:26DALTyler Seguin: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:04PHITravis Sanheim: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 16:54DALColin Miller: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 17:55DALJoel Kiviranta: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hayes won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson9:45
xG 0.70–0.57 (55%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Seguin – Marchment – Blümel9:16
xG 0.55–0.45 (55%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Glendening – Faksa – Kiviranta6:49
xG 0.12–0.20 (38%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Benn – Dellandrea – Johnston7:52
xG 0.14–0.35 (29%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Heiskanen12:48
xG 0.50–0.34 (59%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Suter – Lundkvist12:49
xG 1.03–0.87 (54%)attempts 20–19goals 1–1
- Hakanpää – Lindell8:21
xG 0.31–0.54 (36%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestLaughton – MacEwen – Cates8:54
xG 0.38–0.26 (60%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Deslauriers – Sedlak – Laczynski7:18
xG 0.36–0.31 (54%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Hayes – Konecny – Tippett10:01
xG 0.55–0.51 (52%)attempts 8–13goals 1–1
- Bellows – Frost – Farabee8:36
xG 0.23–0.51 (31%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Sanheim13:31
xG 0.77–0.42 (64%)attempts 17–11goals 1–1
- Seeler – Ristolainen12:16
xG 0.58–0.76 (43%)attempts 12–19goals 0–0
- DeAngelo – Provorov10:31
xG 0.33–0.68 (32%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).