Sun, Nov 13, 2022·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Winnipeg Jets 3, Seattle Kraken 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 05 | 117 | 17 | 11 | 330 |
| SEA | 17 | 06 | 18 | 00 | 221 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:30SEAJordan EberlePPAssists: Vince Dunn, Andre Burakovsky · Wrist, 0.29 xG0–1
- P2 10:52WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Sam Gagner, Kyle Connor · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 7:02SEABrandon TanevAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Yanni Gourde · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 19:54WPGBlake WheelerPPAssists: Kyle Connor, Neal Pionk · Backhand, 0.26 xG2–2
- OT 0:54WPGMark ScheifeleGWGAssists: Josh Morrissey · Snap, 0.29 xG3–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 0:43SEAJordan Eberle: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 5:35WPGSaku Maenalanen: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 6:41WPGBlake Wheeler: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:52SEAJustin Schultz: Interference2 min
- P2 10:23SEAAdam Larsson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:37WPGBrenden Dillon: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:37SEAWill Borgen: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:37WPGBlake Wheeler: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:37WPGBlake Wheeler: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:08SEACarson Soucy: Interference2 min
- P3 1:08SEAJaden Schwartz: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:39SEAJordan Eberle: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:34SEACarson Soucy: Roughing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Scheifele – Connor2:25
xG 0.47–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Dubois – Perfetti6:35
xG 0.31–0.20 (61%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Scheifele – Connor – Appleton6:15
xG 0.28–0.18 (60%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Gagner – Eyssimont – Gustafsson2:07
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Schmidt11:35
xG 0.43–0.26 (62%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Morrissey – Pionk12:16
xG 0.74–0.61 (55%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
- Schmidt – Samberg2:02
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestGourde – Bjorkstrand – Tanev6:37
xG 0.31–0.09 (77%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Schwartz – Burakovsky – Wennberg10:33
xG 0.22–0.24 (48%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Eberle – McCann – Beniers7:05
xG 0.14–0.28 (33%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Donato – Geekie – Kuhlman2:46
xG 0.02–0.29 (7%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOlofsson – Borgen8:19
xG 0.32–0.18 (64%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Larsson – Dunn15:38
xG 0.77–0.63 (55%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Schultz – Soucy10:56
xG 0.41–0.42 (49%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).