Mon, Nov 14, 2022·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
New York Islanders 4, Ottawa Senators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 112 | 112 | 211 | 435 |
| OTT | 010 | 116 | 112 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:53NYIOliver WahlstromPPAssists: Anders Lee, Mathew Barzal · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 8:48OTTDrake BathersonPPAssists: Tim Stützle, Claude Giroux · Snap, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 13:15NYINoah DobsonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–1
- P3 8:21NYIJean-Gabriel PageauPPGWGAssists: Noah Dobson, Mathew Barzal · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 13:08OTTClaude GirouxAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stützle · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 18:50NYIBrock NelsonENAssists: Casey Cizikas, Cal Clutterbuck · Wrist, 0.71 xG4–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:22OTTErik Brannstrom: Interference2 min
- P1 10:44OTTAustin Watson: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:34NYIRoss Johnston: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:34OTTAustin Watson: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:44NYIKyle Palmieri: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:11NYIRoss Johnston: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 8:37NYIScott Mayfield: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 16:47NYICal Clutterbuck: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:33NYIKyle Palmieri: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:23OTTMathieu Joseph: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Pageau – Johnston6:30
xG 0.45–0.10 (82%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Parise – Barzal – Wahlstrom6:22
xG 0.22–0.29 (43%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Lee – Nelson – Beauvillier9:13
xG 0.46–0.64 (42%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas6:39
xG 0.09–0.59 (13%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Mayfield – Aho10:52
xG 0.38–0.36 (52%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Dobson – Romanov13:27
xG 0.52–0.70 (43%)attempts 14–15goals 1–0
- Pelech – Pulock12:53
xG 0.53–1.24 (30%)attempts 11–26goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Tkachuk – Stützle11:48
xG 1.00–0.21 (83%)attempts 18–5goals 1–0
- Watson – Kastelic – Kelly3:40
xG 0.23–0.06 (79%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- DeBrincat – Batherson – Stützle2:10
xG 0.06–0.02 (79%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Brassard – Motte – Joseph6:47
xG 0.41–0.51 (45%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Larsson9:28
xG 0.75–0.17 (82%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Sanderson11:35
xG 1.01–0.50 (67%)attempts 23–9goals 0–0
- Brannstrom – Bernard-Docker14:26
xG 0.61–0.52 (54%)attempts 16–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).