Mon, Nov 14, 2022·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Los Angeles Kings 5, Calgary Flames 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 213 | 14 | 212 | 529 |
| CGY | 49 | 217 | 04 | 630 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:49CGYJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 4:53LAKArthur KaliyevPPAssists: Viktor Arvidsson, Trevor Moore · Snap, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 6:11LAKArthur KaliyevAssists: Blake Lizotte, Matt Roy · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P1 10:55CGYAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Milan Lucic, Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P1 11:37CGYBrett RitchieAssists: Blake Coleman · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–3
- P1 16:25CGYTyler ToffoliAssists: Elias Lindholm, Adam Ruzicka · Snap, 0.11 xG2–4
- P2 1:51CGYElias LindholmPPAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–5
- P2 14:26LAKKevin FialaAssists: Alexander Edler, Rasmus Kupari · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–5
- P2 16:36CGYAdam RuzickaGWGAssists: Elias Lindholm, Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–6
- P3 8:57LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Drew Doughty, Sean Walker · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–6
- P3 18:41LAKAdrian KempeAssists: Drew Doughty, Kevin Fiala · Slap, 0.08 xG5–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:23CGYNazem Kadri: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:53LAKViktor Arvidsson: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 7:49LAKMatt Roy: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 8:17LAKPhillip Danault: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:17CGYNikita Zadorov: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:14CGYNoah Hanifin: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:16CGYJonathan Huberdeau: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:16LAKPhillip Danault: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- Arvidsson – Vilardi – Kupari2:46
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Anderson-Dolan – Lizotte – Kaliyev7:16
xG 0.36–0.38 (49%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
- Danault – Fiala – Moore3:38
xG 0.05–0.12 (30%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Danault – Arvidsson – Moore9:52
xG 0.34–0.53 (39%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Roy – Durzi13:23
xG 0.42–0.42 (50%)attempts 10–11goals 1–3
- Doughty – Anderson16:26
xG 0.40–0.52 (43%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Doughty – Durzi2:01
xG 0.00–0.36 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestColeman – Ritchie – Dube11:01
xG 0.48–0.14 (78%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Toffoli – Lindholm – Ruzicka10:20
xG 0.85–0.54 (61%)attempts 11–9goals 2–1
- Lucic – Kadri – Mangiapane9:43
xG 0.34–0.21 (63%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
- Lewis – Backlund – Huberdeau11:40
xG 0.28–0.17 (62%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Weegar9:28
xG 1.04–0.02 (98%)attempts 15–3goals 2–0
- Tanev – Zadorov5:16
xG 0.40–0.05 (89%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Tanev – Hanifin2:52
xG 0.25–0.01 (95%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).