Mon, Nov 14, 2022·Ball Arena, Denver
St. Louis Blues 3, Colorado Avalanche 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 011 | 215 | 113 | 339 |
| COL | 017 | 112 | 118 | 247 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:29COLMikko RantanenAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 13:49STLRobert ThomasAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 18:59STLBrandon SaadAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 0:13STLJordan KyrouPPGWGAssists: Robert Thomas, Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–1
- P3 3:02COLArtturi LehkonenPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:46STLTorey Krug: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:40STLBrayden Schenn: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:31COLJ.T. Compher: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:58COLMikko Rantanen: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 2:03STLBrayden Schenn: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 17:59STLJustin Faulk: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:16STLPavel Buchnevich: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Compher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Leivo – Saad9:31
xG 0.71–0.29 (71%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Tarasenko – Buchnevich – Thomas12:02
xG 0.63–0.58 (52%)attempts 12–17goals 1–0
- Pitlick – Acciari – Alexandrov6:40
xG 0.37–0.36 (51%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Schenn – Barbashev – Kyrou9:26
xG 0.31–0.40 (44%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Parayko15:03
xG 0.94–0.31 (75%)attempts 16–11goals 2–0
- Mikkola – Rosen10:25
xG 0.88–0.41 (68%)attempts 16–17goals 0–0
- Leddy – Faulk2:50
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMegna – Hunt – Ranta2:48
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Hunt – Rodrigues – Kaut3:41
xG 0.21–0.08 (71%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Compher – O'Connor10:37
xG 0.30–0.41 (42%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Rodrigues – Kaut – Newhook5:13
xG 0.14–0.28 (34%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Manson3:45
xG 0.13–0.07 (65%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Makar2:19
xG 0.05–0.01 (88%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Manson – Toews3:55
xG 0.05–0.03 (65%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).