Tue, Nov 15, 2022·FLA Live Arena, Sunrise
Washington Capitals 2, Florida Panthers 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 09 | 112 | 122 | 243 |
| FLA | 122 | 114 | 37 | 543 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:45FLAAleksander BarkovUnassisted · Snap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 3:46FLASam ReinhartPPAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Matthew Tkachuk · Bat, 0.24 xG0–2
- P2 15:04WSHDylan StromeAssists: Joe Snively, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 7:02FLANick CousinsGWGAssists: Gustav Forsling, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–3
- P3 11:15WSHJohn CarlsonAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Anthony Mantha · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 17:00FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Brandon Montour · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–4
- P3 18:36FLACarter VerhaegheENAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.71 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 19:44FLASam Bennett: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:39WSHLars Eller: Illegal check to head2 min · PPG
- P2 6:56FLAJosh Mahura: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:46FLAJosh Mahura: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:49WSHGarnet Hathaway: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:49FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:53FLACarter Verhaeghe: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:18FLARadko Gudas: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eller won the faceoff against Bennett
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestEller – Mantha – Milano5:00
xG 0.43–0.07 (86%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Protas6:23
xG 0.35–0.25 (58%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Johansson – Sheary – Strome7:15
xG 0.35–0.29 (55%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Dowd – Hathaway – Snively5:03
xG 0.15–0.17 (47%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Gustafsson14:20
xG 0.97–0.78 (56%)attempts 19–20goals 0–1
- Irwin – van Riemsdyk10:48
xG 0.51–0.52 (49%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Jensen – Fehérváry13:53
xG 0.40–0.75 (35%)attempts 16–19goals 0–2
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBennett – White – Luostarinen9:39
xG 0.47–0.27 (63%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Lomberg – Lundell8:51
xG 0.35–0.21 (62%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Barkov – Tkachuk11:26
xG 0.69–0.82 (46%)attempts 13–17goals 2–0
- Staal – Hornqvist – Cousins6:58
xG 0.32–0.47 (40%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMontour – Forsling13:29
xG 1.03–0.38 (73%)attempts 22–16goals 3–0
- Gudas – Forsling2:47
xG 0.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Gudas – Mahura13:29
xG 0.60–0.64 (48%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).