Tue, Nov 15, 2022·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Minnesota Wild 1, Nashville Predators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 017 | 010 | 16 | 133 |
| NSH | 211 | 07 | 07 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:20NSHNino NiederreiterAssists: Ryan Johansen, Matt Duchene · Backhand, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 12:04NSHMatt DuchenePPGWGAssists: Ryan Johansen, Roman Josi · Snap, 0.10 xG0–2
- P3 0:32MINFrederick GaudreauAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Kirill Kaprizov · Snap, 0.13 xG1–2
Penalties (16)
- P1 2:54NSHEeli Tolvanen: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:50MINMarco Rossi: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:40MINSam Steel: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 13:53NSHCole Smith: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:53MINJake Middleton: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:44NSHRyan Johansen: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 1:26MINMarcus Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:26NSHJeremy Lauzon: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:38NSHNino Niederreiter: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 16:17MINMarco Rossi: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 17:12NSHMatt Duchene: Interference2 min
- P2 18:10MINAdam Beckman: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 3:44MINMathew Dumba: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 6:32NSHJeremy Lauzon: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:00NSHDante Fabbro: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaudreau won the faceoff against Parssinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestEriksson Ek – Shaw – Dewar6:56
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–0goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Gaudreau – Kaprizov9:08
xG 0.23–0.13 (64%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Steel – Duhaime – Beckman4:07
xG 0.18–0.11 (61%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Foligno – Boldy – Rossi5:44
xG 0.13–0.17 (43%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMerrill – Addison11:08
xG 0.42–0.22 (66%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Brodin – Dumba11:14
xG 0.36–0.17 (68%)attempts 14–5goals 0–1
- Spurgeon – Middleton7:00
xG 0.14–0.07 (65%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Johansen – Niederreiter8:42
xG 0.49–0.27 (64%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Jankowski – Trenin – Jeannot8:28
xG 0.32–0.32 (50%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Sissons – Tolvanen – Smith5:49
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Granlund – Forsberg – Parssinen8:33
xG 0.05–0.24 (18%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Carrier9:57
xG 0.35–0.16 (69%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Lauzon10:33
xG 0.27–0.30 (48%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Josi – Fabbro9:39
xG 0.29–0.32 (47%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).