Tue, Nov 15, 2022·Honda Center, Anaheim
Detroit Red Wings 2, Anaheim Ducks 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 113 | 110 | 05 | 05 | 233 |
| ANA | 110 | 09 | 19 | 12 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:12DETJonatan BerggrenPPAssists: Filip Hronek, Lucas Raymond · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 17:47ANAMason McTavishPPAssists: Adam Henrique, Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P2 19:25DETMichael RasmussenAssists: David Perron, Oskar Sundqvist · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 19:13ANAJohn KlingbergAssists: Cam Fowler, Trevor Zegras · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
- OT 4:10ANARyan StromeGWGAssists: Trevor Zegras · Tip-in, 0.27 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:48ANASam Carrick: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 17:06DETOskar Sundqvist: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:18DETMichael Rasmussen: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:05ANAColton White: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:01ANAAustin Strand: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:00DETMoritz Seider: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:50DETLucas Raymond: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:04ANASimon Benoit: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:54DETLucas Raymond: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zegras won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Larkin – Raymond10:29
xG 0.44–0.10 (81%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Erne – Rasmussen – Suter2:03
xG 0.05–0.07 (44%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Perron – Sundqvist – Rasmussen8:01
xG 0.52–0.58 (47%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Kubalik – Copp – Erne8:13
xG 0.20–0.28 (42%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChiarot – Seider13:08
xG 0.29–0.21 (58%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Maatta – Hronek16:30
xG 0.96–0.96 (50%)attempts 22–21goals 0–0
- Oesterle – Walman10:18
xG 0.32–0.43 (43%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Vatrano – Regenda7:29
xG 0.49–0.21 (70%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Henrique – Terry – Zegras9:24
xG 0.33–0.06 (85%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Silfverberg – Jones – Lundeström6:16
xG 0.40–0.25 (61%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Carrick – Leason – McTavish2:55
xG 0.03–0.10 (23%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Benoit9:26
xG 0.65–0.28 (70%)attempts 15–6goals 0–1
- White – Strand6:38
xG 0.48–0.29 (62%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Fowler – Klingberg3:44
xG 0.07–0.06 (52%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).