Wed, Nov 16, 2022·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Los Angeles Kings 3, Edmonton Oilers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 113 | 112 | 17 | 332 |
| EDM | 06 | 18 | 09 | 123 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:23LAKTrevor MooreAssists: Phillip Danault, Viktor Arvidsson · Slap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 12:47EDMZach HymanAssists: Ryan Murray · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 17:12LAKTrevor MooreGWGAssists: Viktor Arvidsson, Sean Durzi · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 19:07LAKTrevor MooreENAssists: Viktor Arvidsson · Wrist, 0.55 xG3–1
Penalties (8)
- P2 3:10LAKAlexander Edler: Kneeing2 min
- P2 3:10EDMDarnell Nurse: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:10EDMDarnell Nurse: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:10LAKAlexander Edler: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:51EDMZach Hyman: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 9:12LAKPhillip Danault: Holding2 min
- P2 10:18EDMConnor McDavid: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:09EDMConnor McDavid: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKopitar – Kempe – Vilardi13:16
xG 0.67–0.16 (81%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Fiala – Grundstrom – Kupari9:04
xG 0.50–0.44 (54%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Danault – Arvidsson – Moore12:54
xG 0.55–0.50 (52%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- Anderson-Dolan – Lizotte – Kaliyev5:34
xG 0.10–0.21 (32%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Anderson20:26
xG 1.04–0.75 (58%)attempts 15–21goals 0–1
- Edler – Walker10:15
xG 0.41–0.31 (57%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Roy – Durzi15:14
xG 0.37–0.62 (37%)attempts 9–16goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Hyman – Draisaitl – Foegele9:27
xG 0.29–0.26 (53%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Janmark – Kostin – McLeod5:27
xG 0.19–0.17 (53%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Shore – Ryan – Holloway7:04
xG 0.04–0.12 (23%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Janmark – Kostin3:21
xG 0.19–0.36 (34%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Nurse16:27
xG 0.54–0.44 (55%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Barrie – Murray10:44
xG 0.38–0.38 (50%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
- Kulak – Bouchard17:18
xG 0.41–0.82 (33%)attempts 26–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).