Thu, Nov 17, 2022·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Colorado Avalanche 3, Carolina Hurricanes 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 15 | 16 | 02 | 12 | 315 |
| CAR | 012 | 117 | 118 | 01 | 248 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:20COLEvan RodriguesPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 7:14CARSebastian AhoAssists: Martin Necas · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 14:20COLAlex NewhookAssists: Josh Manson, Erik Johnson · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 10:23CARMartin NecasAssists: Jaccob Slavin · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–2
- OT 1:55COLArtturi LehkonenGWGAssists: J.T. Compher, Devon Toews · Slap, 0.16 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:57COLEvan Rodrigues: High sticking2 min
- P1 6:08CARJesperi Kotkaniemi: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 13:18COLAnton Blidh: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:31COLLogan O'Connor: Holding2 min
- P2 14:53CARJordan Martinook: Holding2 min
- P2 14:53COLNathan MacKinnon: Interference2 min
- P2 16:49CARPaul Stastny: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:47CARBrent Burns: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:11COLAlex Newhook: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – MacKinnon – Rantanen10:56
xG 0.50–0.33 (61%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Rodrigues – Kaut – Newhook7:24
xG 0.30–0.14 (68%)attempts 4–5goals 1–1
- Megna – Blidh – Hunt3:34
xG 0.02–0.18 (10%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Compher – O'Connor8:48
xG 0.11–0.60 (16%)attempts 3–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar10:35
xG 0.66–0.41 (61%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Manson – Toews2:08
xG 0.11–0.00 (96%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Makar2:19
xG 0.26–0.19 (58%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestKotkaniemi – Svechnikov – Jarvis10:12
xG 0.85–0.11 (88%)attempts 19–2goals 0–0
- Noesen – Aho – Necas9:00
xG 0.61–0.29 (68%)attempts 13–6goals 2–1
- Stastny – Stepan – Drury3:50
xG 0.10–0.14 (42%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Staal – Fast – Martinook13:05
xG 0.33–0.42 (44%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Slavin14:50
xG 0.85–0.17 (83%)attempts 24–4goals 2–0
- de Haan – Chatfield9:05
xG 0.37–0.29 (56%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Skjei – Pesce15:17
xG 0.51–0.73 (41%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).