Thu, Nov 17, 2022·FLA Live Arena, Sunrise
Dallas Stars 6, Florida Panthers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 411 | 19 | 19 | 629 |
| FLA | 013 | 315 | 116 | 444 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:58DALRoope HintzAssists: Tyler Seguin, Esa Lindell · Snap, 0.22 xG1–0
- P1 15:16DALNils LundkvistAssists: Radek Faksa, Luke Glendening · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
- P1 15:53DALJamie BennAssists: Ty Dellandrea, Wyatt Johnston · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–0
- P1 19:51DALTyler SeguinAssists: Mason Marchment · Wrist, 0.28 xG4–0
- P2 7:29FLACarter VerhaeghePPAssists: Gustav Forsling, Sam Bennett · Snap, 0.09 xG4–1
- P2 10:56DALRoope HintzGWGAssists: Jason Robertson · Snap, 0.17 xG5–1
- P2 12:12FLAEetu LuostarinenAssists: Sam Bennett, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.11 xG5–2
- P2 18:27FLASam ReinhartPPAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Brandon Montour · Deflected, 0.15 xG5–3
- P3 13:57FLAMatthew TkachukAssists: Sam Bennett, Carter Verhaeghe · Backhand, 0.11 xG5–4
- P3 19:42DALTy DellandreaENAssists: Jamie Benn, Luke Glendening · Wrist, 0.70 xG6–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:46DALMiro Heiskanen: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:43DALTy Dellandrea: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:35DALTyler Seguin: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:36FLARyan Lomberg: Interference2 min
- P2 13:26FLANick Cousins: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:38DALJani Hakanpää: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:17FLAAaron Ekblad: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:27FLASam Bennett: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:27FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:27DALMason Marchment: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 17:27DALMason Marchment: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson9:34
xG 0.52–0.29 (64%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Glendening – Faksa – Kiviranta6:50
xG 0.35–0.39 (47%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Benn – Dellandrea – Johnston6:21
xG 0.27–0.31 (46%)attempts 4–10goals 1–1
- Seguin – Marchment – Blümel8:50
xG 0.54–0.81 (40%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHanley – Lundkvist8:40
xG 0.64–0.13 (83%)attempts 10–7goals 2–0
- Hakanpää – Lindell13:45
xG 0.62–0.78 (44%)attempts 7–18goals 3–1
- Suter – Heiskanen15:20
xG 0.37–0.88 (30%)attempts 12–18goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Verhaeghe – Tkachuk2:58
xG 0.52–0.28 (66%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Bennett – Tkachuk – Luostarinen7:08
xG 0.58–0.39 (60%)attempts 10–5goals 1–1
- Staal – Cousins – Lomberg2:54
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Bennett – White – Luostarinen3:01
xG 0.08–0.05 (62%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkblad – Forsling7:56
xG 0.70–0.37 (66%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Staal – Ekblad6:29
xG 0.77–0.51 (60%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Montour – Mahura2:33
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).