Thu, Nov 17, 2022·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
New Jersey Devils 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 112 | 18 | 011 | 12 | 333 |
| TOR | 19 | 06 | 112 | 00 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:15TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: Michael Bunting, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 15:39NJDJesper BrattAssists: Erik Haula, Brendan Smith · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 3:02NJDNico HischierAssists: Fabian Zetterlund · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 17:51TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Auston Matthews, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- OT 0:57NJDYegor SharangovichGWGAssists: Jack Hughes · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 10:46TORZachary Aston-Reese: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:02NJDDougie Hamilton: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:28NJDJonas Siegenthaler: Interference2 min
- P2 17:36TORJordie Benn: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:10NJDNathan Bastian: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 7:41NJDDamon Severson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:43NJDMichael McLeod: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestBoqvist – Sharangovich – Mercer5:34
xG 0.73–0.01 (98%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Tatar – Hischier – Zetterlund9:04
xG 0.69–0.18 (79%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Haula – Bratt – Hughes6:16
xG 0.51–0.04 (92%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Wood – Bastian – McLeod8:16
xG 0.24–0.32 (43%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Siegenthaler17:20
xG 1.20–0.32 (79%)attempts 19–17goals 0–0
- Smith – Severson10:48
xG 0.68–0.37 (64%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Graves – Marino14:00
xG 0.24–0.27 (46%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Nylander – Bunting – Matthews10:35
xG 0.37–0.34 (52%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Engvall – Aston-Reese – Kampf2:04
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Engvall – Holmberg6:33
xG 0.15–0.46 (24%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Malgin – Aston-Reese – Kampf7:45
xG 0.07–0.48 (13%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Benn – Rielly13:39
xG 0.43–0.41 (51%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
- Liljegren – Sandin10:55
xG 0.18–0.84 (18%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
- Giordano – Holl15:02
xG 0.23–1.08 (17%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).