Thu, Nov 17, 2022·TD Garden, Boston
Philadelphia Flyers 1, Boston Bruins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 08 | 05 | 110 | 123 |
| BOS | 012 | 110 | 310 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:25BOSTomas NosekAssists: Nick Foligno, Pavel Zacha · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P3 7:32BOSJake DeBruskPPGWGAssists: David Pastrnak, Charlie McAvoy · Snap, 0.32 xG0–2
- P3 9:48PHIOwen TippettPPAssists: Kevin Hayes, Tony DeAngelo · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 10:04BOSDavid KrejciAssists: Pavel Zacha, Hampus Lindholm · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 16:21BOSDavid KrejciPPAssists: Nick Foligno, Taylor Hall · Snap, 0.15 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:39PHITravis Sanheim: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:19BOSJake DeBrusk: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:18PHIZack MacEwen: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 19:27BOSTaylor Hall: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:28BOSLinus Ullmark: Interference2 min
- P3 6:32PHIMax Willman: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:41BOSCharlie McAvoy: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 14:45PHIIvan Provorov: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nosek won the faceoff against Hayes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestMacEwen – Tippett – Cates6:06
xG 0.23–0.05 (82%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Hayes – Laughton – MacEwen2:30
xG 0.18–0.11 (62%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Tippett – Frost – Farabee2:24
xG 0.13–0.11 (55%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Hayes – Laughton – Konecny7:02
xG 0.41–0.39 (51%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – Ristolainen11:09
xG 0.38–0.23 (62%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Braun – Sanheim9:15
xG 0.43–0.49 (47%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Sanheim – DeAngelo4:49
xG 0.17–0.34 (33%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKrejci – Hall – Zacha3:44
xG 0.44–0.03 (93%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Krejci – Hall – DeBrusk6:41
xG 0.52–0.14 (79%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Coyle – Zacha – Frederic5:35
xG 0.45–0.35 (56%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak9:51
xG 0.24–0.29 (45%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – Clifton14:15
xG 0.76–0.25 (75%)attempts 14–14goals 2–0
- Stralman – Carlo11:48
xG 0.60–0.32 (66%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Grzelcyk – McAvoy11:25
xG 0.45–0.33 (58%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).