Thu, Nov 17, 2022·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Pittsburgh Penguins 6, Minnesota Wild 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 24 | 116 | 312 | 632 |
| MIN | 05 | 29 | 29 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:15PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Jake Guentzel, Rickard Rakell · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 17:03PITRyan PoehlingAssists: Teddy Blueger, Josh Archibald · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 4:31MINBrandon DuhaimeAssists: Marcus Foligno · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 4:43MINJoel Eriksson EkUnassisted · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–2
- P2 18:20PITKris LetangPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin · Slap, 0.16 xG3–2
- P3 5:50PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Jake Guentzel, Tristan Jarry · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–2
- P3 11:23MINJoel Eriksson EkSHAssists: Frederick Gaudreau, Jonas Brodin · Snap, 0.13 xG4–3
- P3 14:33PITBrock McGinnGWGAssists: Danton Heinen, Jeff Carter · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–3
- P3 16:31PITJake GuentzelENAssists: Sidney Crosby, Marcus Pettersson · Wrist, 0.65 xG6–3
- P3 19:52MINMathew DumbaAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Mats Zuccarello · Snap, 0.10 xG6–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 9:41PITJan Rutta: Interference2 min
- P2 12:39MINMathew Dumba: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:33PITJosh Archibald: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 16:29MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 17:45MINConnor Dewar: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:57MINBrandon Duhaime: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 6:05PITJeff Carter: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:13MINMason Shaw: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestArchibald – Blueger – Poehling7:14
xG 0.68–0.11 (86%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Crosby – Rakell – Guentzel12:01
xG 0.19–0.25 (43%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Carter – McGinn – Heinen9:06
xG 0.07–0.28 (19%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Malkin – Zucker – Rust11:00
xG 0.21–0.63 (25%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDumoulin – Rutta12:12
xG 0.68–0.50 (58%)attempts 17–6goals 1–1
- Petry – Joseph12:34
xG 0.28–0.40 (41%)attempts 11–9goals 2–1
- Letang – Pettersson12:33
xG 0.21–0.41 (34%)attempts 5–14goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Eriksson Ek – Duhaime8:50
xG 0.73–0.13 (85%)attempts 10–5goals 2–0
- Shaw – Dewar – Boldy9:25
xG 0.27–0.17 (61%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Zuccarello – Gaudreau – Kaprizov8:47
xG 0.16–0.08 (67%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
- Steel – Jost – Rossi6:21
xG 0.07–0.16 (30%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba14:54
xG 0.81–0.15 (84%)attempts 18–9goals 2–0
- Merrill – Dumba2:09
xG 0.10–0.05 (67%)attempts 2–2goals 1–1
- Merrill – Addison11:09
xG 0.52–0.64 (45%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).