Thu, Nov 17, 2022·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Washington Capitals 4, St. Louis Blues 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 09 | 218 | 222 | 02 | 1 | 451 |
| STL | 37 | 19 | 03 | 05 | 2 | 524 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:56STLBrayden SchennAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Ivan Barbashev · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 7:10STLPavel BuchnevichAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Nick Leddy · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG0–2
- P1 11:49STLTorey KrugPPAssists: Robert Thomas, Vladimir Tarasenko · Slap, 0.06 xG0–3
- P2 15:12WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Dylan Strome · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–3
- P2 17:36WSHJohn CarlsonSHAssists: Nic Dowd, Nick Jensen · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
- P2 18:02STLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Josh Leivo, Justin Faulk · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–4
- P3 15:45WSHJohn CarlsonPPAssists: Dylan Strome, Alex Ovechkin · Slap, 0.11 xG3–4
- P3 16:57WSHConor ShearyAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. STL Jordan Kyrou stopped
- 2. WSH Evgeny Kuznetsov scored
- 3. STL Vladimir Tarasenko stopped
- 4. WSH Alex Ovechkin stopped
- 5. STL Ryan O'Reilly scored
- 6. WSH John Carlson stopped
- 7. STL Brayden Schenn stopped
- 8. WSH Anthony Mantha stopped
- 9. STL Robert Thomas stopped
- 10. WSH Dylan Strome stopped
- 11. STL Pavel Buchnevich scored
- 12. WSH Conor Sheary stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 11:03WSHDylan Strome: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 15:43STLBrandon Saad: Holding2 min
- P1 17:04WSHAlex Ovechkin: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:12STLRobert Thomas: Interference2 min
- P1 18:43WSHErik Gustafsson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:56STLRyan O'Reilly: Interference2 min
- P2 15:58WSHLars Eller: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:22STLRyan O'Reilly: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thomas won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Dowd – Hathaway9:42
xG 0.67–0.04 (94%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Sheary – Strome4:07
xG 0.36–0.09 (81%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Protas6:26
xG 0.35–0.15 (70%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Eller – Mantha2:04
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Fehérváry14:33
xG 0.91–0.36 (71%)attempts 21–9goals 0–0
- Irwin – van Riemsdyk9:11
xG 0.46–0.10 (83%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Carlson – Gustafsson15:39
xG 0.91–0.56 (62%)attempts 23–8goals 2–2
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- O'Reilly – Leivo – Saad11:55
xG 0.25–0.21 (55%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Pitlick – Acciari – Alexandrov7:50
xG 0.07–0.39 (14%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
- Schenn – Barbashev – Kyrou9:39
xG 0.23–0.64 (26%)attempts 4–10goals 1–0
- Tarasenko – Buchnevich – Thomas9:49
xG 0.38–0.96 (29%)attempts 6–16goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Faulk – Rosen2:36
xG 0.11–0.13 (46%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Leddy – Mikkola16:02
xG 0.61–0.82 (43%)attempts 8–26goals 1–1
- Rosen – Tucker12:19
xG 0.08–0.75 (9%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).