Thu, Nov 17, 2022·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
New York Rangers 2, Seattle Kraken 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 114 | 05 | 19 | 02 | 230 |
| SEA | 16 | 016 | 18 | 12 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:45SEAJared McCannAssists: Will Borgen, Jordan Eberle · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 14:58NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Chris Kreider, Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 9:27SEAJustin SchultzAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Jaden Schwartz · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P3 18:06NYRVincent TrocheckPPAssists: Barclay Goodrow, Adam Fox · Snap, 0.29 xG2–2
- OT 3:39SEAJustin SchultzGWGAssists: Jordan Eberle, Vince Dunn · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:23SEAMorgan Geekie: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:03SEABrandon Tanev: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:02NYRSammy Blais: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 8:54NYRVincent Trocheck: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:07NYRArtemi Panarin: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:03SEACarson Soucy: Elbowing2 min
- P3 12:41NYRMika Zibanejad: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:04SEACarson Soucy: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Vesey11:07
xG 0.33–0.40 (45%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Goodrow – Panarin10:03
xG 0.70–0.85 (45%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Carpenter – Blais – Gauthier5:24
xG 0.15–0.31 (33%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Chytil – Kakko – Lafrenière8:36
xG 0.31–0.54 (36%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Trouba – Miller15:46
xG 0.84–0.92 (48%)attempts 18–16goals 0–0
- Fox – Lindgren13:49
xG 0.60–1.18 (34%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
- Hajek – Schneider11:56
xG 0.24–0.89 (21%)attempts 7–16goals 0–1
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestEberle – McCann – Beniers8:43
xG 0.48–0.04 (92%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Schwartz – Burakovsky – Wennberg10:12
xG 0.71–0.28 (72%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Donato – Sprong – Geekie4:24
xG 0.27–0.01 (98%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Gourde – Donato – Tanev2:08
xG 0.30–0.08 (78%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBorgen – Fleury8:00
xG 0.89–0.25 (78%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Schultz – Soucy12:14
xG 0.65–0.42 (60%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Larsson – Dunn15:22
xG 0.85–0.63 (57%)attempts 16–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).