Thu, Nov 17, 2022·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Detroit Red Wings 7, San Jose Sharks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 14 | 29 | 48 | 721 |
| SJS | 29 | 08 | 28 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:56SJSKevin LabancAssists: Erik Karlsson, Timo Meier · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 9:39DETFilip HronekAssists: David Perron · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 12:52SJSMatt NietoAssists: Erik Karlsson, Nick Cicek · Backhand, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 11:27DETDavid PerronAssists: Dylan Larkin, Dominik Kubalik · Deflected, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 16:44DETJake WalmanAssists: Michael Rasmussen, Adam Erne · Slap, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 4:58DETJoseph VelenoAssists: Pius Suter, Jonatan Berggren · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG4–2
- P3 8:58SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Erik Karlsson, Jaycob Megna · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–3
- P3 11:31SJSErik KarlssonAssists: Kevin Labanc, Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–4
- P3 13:54DETMoritz SeiderGWGAssists: David Perron, Ben Chiarot · Wrist, 0.02 xG5–4
- P3 16:23DETPius SuterAssists: Andrew Copp · Wrist, 0.15 xG6–4
- P3 18:45DETDominik KubalikENAssists: Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.76 xG7–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 2:58DETJoseph Veleno: Boarding2 min
- P1 10:05SJSLuke Kunin: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:47SJSAlexander Barabanov: Interference2 min
- P2 7:37SJSNick Bonino: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against Rasmussen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Sundqvist – Rasmussen3:45
xG 0.35–0.09 (80%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Bertuzzi – Suter – Veleno3:09
xG 0.05–0.05 (50%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Kubalik – Copp – Erne3:59
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Suter – Veleno – Berggren5:25
xG 0.27–0.29 (48%)attempts 5–7goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Hronek15:29
xG 0.58–0.34 (63%)attempts 14–10goals 3–0
- Oesterle – Walman10:56
xG 0.17–0.26 (39%)attempts 6–10goals 2–0
- Chiarot – Maatta2:53
xG 0.05–0.25 (16%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHertl – Labanc – Meier13:16
xG 1.11–0.46 (71%)attempts 21–10goals 2–2
- Hertl – Meier – Barabanov2:01
xG 0.08–0.08 (49%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Bonino – Kunin – Sturm7:29
xG 0.10–0.11 (47%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Couture – Nieto – Barabanov10:48
xG 0.30–0.33 (47%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Megna15:28
xG 0.99–0.61 (62%)attempts 22–10goals 3–3
- Karlsson – Cicek2:14
xG 0.29–0.00 (99%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Ferraro – Cicek10:34
xG 0.32–0.16 (67%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).