Sat, Nov 19, 2022·Capital One Arena, Washington
Colorado Avalanche 4, Washington Capitals 0
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 18 | 18 | 213 | 429 |
| WSH | 014 | 08 | 010 | 032 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:39COLCale MakarPPGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Artturi Lehkonen · Slap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 13:14COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Josh Manson, Alex Newhook · Snap, 0.19 xG2–0
- P3 8:57COLAndrew CoglianoAssists: Jacob MacDonald, J.T. Compher · Deflected, 0.18 xG3–0
- P3 16:12COLArtturi LehkonenUnassisted · Snap, 0.25 xG4–0
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:38WSHNick Jensen: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:56WSHGarnet Hathaway: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 18:30WSHLars Eller: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:11COLDevon Toews: Holding2 min
- P2 17:31COLMikko Rantanen: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dowd won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestCogliano – Compher – O'Connor10:51
xG 0.95–0.19 (83%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Rodrigues – Kaut – Newhook10:30
xG 0.46–0.19 (71%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Rantanen14:17
xG 0.91–0.67 (58%)attempts 20–17goals 1–0
- Megna – Blidh – Hunt5:26
xG 0.04–0.49 (7%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Manson5:12
xG 0.57–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Manson – MacDonald7:40
xG 0.73–0.41 (64%)attempts 9–7goals 2–0
- Johnson – Toews2:32
xG 0.22–0.02 (91%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Dowd – Hathaway4:42
xG 0.38–0.02 (96%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Eller – Mantha – Protas2:41
xG 0.22–0.13 (64%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Eller – Mantha – Aube-Kubel7:01
xG 0.35–0.26 (57%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
- Kuznetsov – Milano – Protas5:28
xG 0.20–0.13 (61%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGustafsson – van Riemsdyk2:10
xG 0.12–0.06 (65%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Irwin – van Riemsdyk11:25
xG 0.42–0.38 (53%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Fehérváry2:43
xG 0.11–0.30 (26%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).