Sat, Nov 19, 2022·Centre Bell, Montreal
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Montréal Canadiens 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 29 | 18 | 112 | 00 | 0 | 429 |
| MTL | 211 | 114 | 16 | 01 | 1 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:39PHITravis SanheimAssists: Scott Laughton, Zack MacEwen · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P1 2:55PHIOwen TippettAssists: Travis Sanheim, Joel Farabee · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–0
- P1 4:07MTLChristian DvorakAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Arber Xhekaj · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P1 17:49MTLCole CaufieldPPAssists: Kirby Dach, Mike Hoffman · Slap, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 11:55MTLMike MathesonAssists: Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P2 15:50PHIOwen TippettUnassisted · Snap, 0.06 xG3–3
- P3 8:17PHIKevin HayesAssists: Nick Seeler, Zack MacEwen · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–3
- P3 19:57MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Nick Suzuki, Sean Monahan · Snap, 0.06 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. MTL Cole Caufield stopped
- 2. PHI Owen Tippett stopped
- 3. MTL Nick Suzuki scored
- 4. PHI Morgan Frost stopped
- 5. MTL Christian Dvorak stopped
- 6. PHI Kevin Hayes stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 15:52PHIKieffer Bellows: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:19PHIScott Laughton: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:17MTLKirby Dach: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:59MTLEvgenii Dadonov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 15:49MTLArber Xhekaj: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:49PHINicolas Deslauriers: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:32PHIRasmus Ristolainen: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:57MTLMike Matheson: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against Frost
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestTippett – Frost – Farabee9:48
xG 0.56–0.26 (68%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Deslauriers – Sedlak – Brown2:41
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Sedlak – Bellows4:18
xG 0.19–0.06 (76%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Laughton – MacEwen – Cates5:25
xG 0.50–0.55 (47%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – Ristolainen11:27
xG 0.86–0.56 (61%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Braun – Sanheim13:11
xG 0.94–0.69 (58%)attempts 17–14goals 1–1
- DeAngelo – Provorov13:25
xG 0.46–0.79 (37%)attempts 14–12goals 1–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Gallagher – Dvorak5:28
xG 0.43–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Dadonov – Anderson – Monahan8:39
xG 0.41–0.45 (48%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Evans – Pezzetta – Slafkovský3:47
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–2
- Gallagher – Dvorak – Evans2:05
xG 0.09–0.32 (22%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Guhle13:24
xG 0.71–0.34 (67%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- Edmundson – Matheson12:09
xG 0.75–0.69 (52%)attempts 14–16goals 1–2
- Kovacevic – Xhekaj9:41
xG 0.50–0.61 (45%)attempts 8–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).