Sat, Nov 19, 2022·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Winnipeg Jets 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 011 | 010 | 311 | 332 |
| WPG | 013 | 010 | 09 | 032 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 0:53PITJason ZuckerGWGAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Jeff Petry · Snap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P3 18:26PITBryan RustAssists: Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–0
- P3 19:56PITJake GuentzelENAssists: Bryan Rust, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.79 xG3–0
Penalties (4)
- P2 1:59WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:11PITDanton Heinen: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:02PITPierre-Olivier Joseph: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:35WPGSaku Maenalanen: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Zucker – Rust10:00
xG 0.80–0.21 (79%)attempts 18–9goals 1–0
- Crosby – Rakell – Guentzel13:55
xG 0.62–0.46 (58%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Archibald – Blueger – Poehling7:20
xG 0.30–0.26 (53%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Carter – McGinn – Heinen9:02
xG 0.00–0.25 (0%)attempts 0–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Petry2:03
xG 0.23–0.04 (84%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Petry – Joseph13:34
xG 0.38–0.33 (53%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Dumoulin – Rutta10:12
xG 0.06–0.13 (31%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Gagner – Scheifele – Connor13:03
xG 0.39–0.35 (53%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Toninato – Eyssimont – Gustafsson2:03
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Dubois – Perfetti12:36
xG 0.29–0.49 (38%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
- Lowry – Maenalanen – Jonsson-Fjallby11:29
xG 0.37–0.75 (33%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCapobianco – Samberg8:41
xG 0.27–0.00 (99%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Morrissey – Pionk18:42
xG 0.68–0.99 (41%)attempts 15–26goals 0–1
- Dillon – Schmidt15:41
xG 0.38–0.99 (28%)attempts 13–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).